Crypto Technical Analysis Lack of direction becomes evident

As the end of July approaches, the cryptocurrency market is once again showing a dynamic of broad indecision and weakness. For now, mixed movements continue to dominate, with no clear direction of confidence visible across the market.

Some cryptocurrencies have started to show important weakness, while Bitcoin, as the reference asset, has failed to sustain solid demand. If this lack of appetite continues and relevant declines remain in place, weakness and indecision could continue to shape the main movements in the crypto market over the next few trading sessions.

Performance of the main cryptocurrencies

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

• During the week, mixed behavior once again stood out across the cryptocurrency market. Dogecoin, which had been one of the most stable cryptocurrencies in previous weeks, now shows a short-term decline of -5.02%, positioning itself as one of the weakest and most unstable assets now. In contrast, Litecoin has been the only cryptocurrency to maintain some relative stability, with a weekly gain of 2.89%. However, this isolated recovery has not been enough to change the broader market perception. In general, most cryptocurrencies are not showing clear strength, which highlights a lack of overall confidence in the short term.
   

• On average over the last 10 weeks, weakness remains important across the main cryptocurrencies. All of them continue to show relevant declines, suggesting that medium-term selling pressure has not fully disappeared. In this area, ETH stands out with a decline of -16.07%, positioning itself as one of the most stable cryptocurrencies compared with others in the market, although it still reflects an important price reduction. In contrast, Dogecoin remains one of the most affected assets, with a decline of -38.99%, showing that its accumulated weakness remains considerable.
   

• Year to date, the dynamic remains quite similar. None of the main cryptocurrencies has managed to move above its 2026 opening price, and the recent recovery still does not seem strong enough to drastically change the annual bearish trend. Cardano remains the weakest asset in this period, with a decline of -50.66%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has tried to maintain greater relative stability, with a decline of -26.93%, although it has still failed to post a positive performance for the year. So far, the crypto market is on track to close 2026 with important losses, showing that accumulated long-term weakness remains relevant.
   

• Bitcoin, which had tried to maintain strength in previous weeks, is once again showing short-term indecision. During the week, its price barely changed by around 20 dollars and has failed to clearly hold the 65k level. This dynamic highlights the lack of direction in the most important cryptocurrency in the market and could be affecting confidence in the rest of the crypto assets in the short term.
   

• In general terms, the market has failed to maintain the confidence seen the previous week and continues to show weakness and indecision. In addition, Bitcoin has not managed to lift the rest of the market, maintaining a sense of broad pressure that could continue to affect the recent recovery over the next few trading sessions.
   

Colors from red to green – Red for negative correlations and green for positive correlations

Source: Data - StoneX, Tradingview

From a correlation perspective, the loss of similar movements between Bitcoin and several cryptocurrencies in the market has become increasingly evident. When looking at the correlation coefficient, only ETH and Litecoin maintain positive readings above 0.8, while the rest of the market has started to show a weaker relationship with Bitcoin’s movements, with coefficients that even approach the 0 level. It is important to remember that the correlation coefficient can change over time.

This shows that, although positive correlation remains present in some parts of the market, it no longer appears to be as strong as in previous months. It may also indicate that the crypto market has started to partially detach from Bitcoin’s recovery attempts.

In this context, the most important cryptocurrency in the market has not managed to stabilize a strength bias capable of lifting the sector as a whole. The current dynamic appears to be concentrated in specific assets, rather than in broad confidence that benefits the entire market.

As a result, the broader outlook remains marked by weakness and indecision across the main cryptocurrencies. So far, not even the largest assets have managed to stand out with relevant strength, meaning this phase could remain important over the next few sessions, especially if confidence does not recover in reference cryptocurrencies such as BTC.

 

Bitcoin appears to respect the sideways range

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Bitcoin has not managed to stand out with strong movements during the week and, for now, maintains a short-term weakness dynamic. The major bearish trend line from previous months remains the most important structure on the daily chart, as recent recovery attempts have not been enough to put it at risk. For this reason, the bearish line could remain the dominant long-term pattern. At the same time, price has started to respect a possible sideways range, which has become relevant for short-term movements.

Indicators:

• Now, both the RSI and the MACD histogram remain very close to their neutral levels of 50 and 0, respectively. This highlights a balance between buying and selling impulses, as well as neutral average strength in short-term moving averages. This dynamic shows that the current phase of neutrality or indecision in BTC could remain relevant due to the lack of clear direction on the chart over the next few sessions.

Key levels:

• 70,600 USD – Important resistance: This recent high zone is positioned as the most relevant bullish barrier. This level coincides with the base marked by the long bearish trend line and also with the 200-period simple moving average. Moves toward this area could reactivate the buying bias and start putting the bearish structure at risk over the coming weeks.
   
• 65,500 USD – Near-term barrier: This level is starting to align with the 50-period simple moving average. This area has acted as a neutral reference for price. If Bitcoin fails to move clearly away from this level, a more important sideways phase could begin to stand out over the next few trading sessions.
   
• 59,300 USD – Definitive support: This area represents the October 2024 low and is close to important psychological levels. For now, it remains the most relevant bearish barrier. Consistent moves below this point could reactivate the selling bias seen in previous weeks, mark new yearly lows and extend the major bearish trend line on the daily chart as the dominant structure.

 

Dogecoin marks new lows

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Dogecoin ended the week as the cryptocurrency showing the greatest weakness. Over the last few sessions, price broke a previous sideways structure and marked new 2026 lows, reinforcing the selling bias on the chart. These movements still align with a major bearish trend line, which has remained the most relevant technical structure over the last few months. If selling pressure continues, this trend could keep extending over the next few sessions.

Indicators:

• Now, the MACD shows a histogram moving close to the neutral 0 line, suggesting balance in short-term moving averages and highlighting a possible phase of indecision. However, the RSI remains close to oversold levels. In addition, the indicator is forming higher lows, while Dogecoin’s price is marking lower lows. This dynamic suggests a possible bullish divergence, which could warn of excessive selling pressure and open room for short-term bullish corrections over the next few sessions.

 

Key levels:

• 8.85 – Important resistance: This previous weekly high is the most important bullish barrier to watch outside the long bearish trend line. Price movements toward this area could put an end to the bearish trend as the dominant structure and open room for a more relevant buying bias over the coming trading weeks.
   
• 7.81 – Near-term barrier: This level aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. This area could act as a tentative barrier in case of possible short-term bullish corrections.
   
• 6.62 – Main support: This level corresponds to relevant lows not seen since November 2023 and remains the most important bearish barrier at the moment. Moves below this area could confirm stronger dominance of the selling bias and open room for an extension of the major bearish trend line on the chart.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25