DXY and EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlooks

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on DXY and EUR/USD

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the DXY and EUR/USD 
• Event risk this week: ECB, U.S. PPI & CPI reports

US Dollar Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: It’s a big week for the Dollar with the index trading just above pivotal support at the 2025 August high-day close and the May low at 98.68/69. The focus is on possible inflection off this threshold in the days ahead with a break / daily close below needed to fuel the next leg of the July downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the yearly open at 98.24 and the 61.8% retracement of the January rally at 97.94.

Initial resistance stands with the 200-day & 52-week moving averages at ~99.11/14 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the January swing high ~99.44/49. Ultimately, a breach / daily close above the 38.2% retracement of the June decline at 99.80 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: The Dollar is trading just above pivotal support into the start of the week, and the immediate focus is on a possible inflection off this level. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies would need to be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 98.68 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Stay nimble into CPI and watch the weekly close for guidance here.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: Euros has defended the late-July uptrend with the monthly opening range taking shape just above a key pivot zone at 1.1564/78. This region is defined by the 38.2% retracement of the June advance, and the May & January swing lows. A break / daily close below this key zone would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives rests at the August open at 1.1535 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1472.

Initial resistance is eyed at the 200-day moving average (currently ~1.1633) and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 1.1656. A breach / daily close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1704 and the 2026 yearly open at 1.1746. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: EUR/USD is trading just above multi-week uptrend support with the September opening-range take shape just above. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1564 IF Euro is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1656 needed to fuel the ethe next leg of the advance.

EUR/USD faces a heavy slate of event risk this week, with the European Central Bank widely expected to raise rates before attention shifts to the release of U.S. PPI and CPI. With an ECB hike largely priced in, the accompanying guidance may prove more important for the euro as markets assess the path for further tightening. On the U.S. side, the inflation reports represent the final major test ahead of next week’s FOMC decision, with markets currently pricing nearly a 60% probability of a rate hike. A hotter-than-expected inflation print could push those odds higher and reinforce support for the U.S. dollar, while softer data could temper Fed expectations and offer the euro some relief. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for guidance here.  

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

 

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex