Dollar forecast - Forex Friday | June 12, 2026

Earlier today, the US dollar found renewed support after oil prices rebounded on fresh doubts over a US-Iran deal, while equity markets held steady amid the SpaceX IPO enthusiasm. But moments ago, Iran’s foreign minister delivered hope, with a social media post suggesting that the Memorandum of Understanding “has never been closer.”  Meanwhile, today’s only noticeable data release – the UoM Consumer Sentiment – came in better than expected. For FX investors, all eyes remain the US-Iran situation and oil prices. Until such a time there is an actual deal in place, investors are shying away from aggressively bidding the likes of the euro, yen or pound. For now, the US dollar forecast remains highly uncertain. Looking ahead, there will be lots of central bank meetings to look forward to.

 

 

The dollar forecast has taken a bit of a technical downgrade with the Dollar Index printing a large bearish engulfing candle right at key resistance circa 100.00. Let’s see if there will be any downside follow through next week, or this proves to be a temporary stop.

 

Confusion around MoU for US-Iran deal

 

Following some not-so-great headlines from Iran this morning, which had already dampened enthusiasm over a deal, the US president come out with fresh comments on the situation on social media. The latest post from the US president further raised concerns that yet again, markets were, frankly, mis-led by Trump and his advisors. But there was hope: Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted on X the following:

 

“The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content. In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.”

 

Earlier, Trump posted the following on Truth Social, which had raised some doubts:

 

“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

 

Ceasefire optimism could weigh on dollar forecast

 

Markets had initially welcomed yesterday’s post by Trump suggesting progress towards a renewed agreement between the US and Iran. Those moves had since stalled as investors awaited response from Tehran. Apparently, the memorandum of understanding was under review in Tehran. Judging by the latest post by Trump today, it looks like, at best, there’s some misunderstanding between the two sides or fake news is unsettling markets. At worst, no deal will be made, and markets will be left in limbo again with the weekend fast approaching. But Araghchi’s latest post has raised hopes again.

 

If an agreement is eventually made then the reaction will most likely visible across financial markets, especially in energy markets, where oil prices could tumble and encourage some risk taking in places like Europe and other regions reliant on oil imports.

 

But the potential arrangement will need to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume more freely while enabling Iran to return additional crude supplies to global markets, to trigger a positive market reaction. That would undoubtedly ease concerns about energy shortages and inflation pressures.

 

Even if a deal is eventually secured, the broader economic consequences of recent supply disruptions may linger. Energy markets have absorbed a significant shock over recent weeks, and unless oil flows normalise quickly through the Gulf, price pressures could remain elevated into late summer.  At the same time, resilient US labour market data continues to complicate the Federal Reserve’s outlook. Markets are still assigning a meaningful probability to further policy tightening this year, despite the slight easing of oil prices. So, the long-term dollar forecast may not necessarily turn bearish in the event we see a deal.

 

SpaceX IPO boosting dollar forecast?

 

A diplomatic breakthrough in the Gulf would certainly provide a supportive backdrop for broader risk sentiment.

 

Investors will also be monitoring the highly anticipated Nasdaq debut of SpaceX, which has generated considerable enthusiasm in pre-market pricing. The SpaceX IPO is set to be the largest one ever. It is true that foreign investors looking to participate in it would need US dollars, and this may be a reason why the dollar has been so strong in the last couple of weeks or so. However, the dollar is also finding support because of the energy spike and inflation concerns, driving both haven and speculative flows as investors re-asses the Federal Reserve rates outlook.

 

But the recent selling of crypto, gold and silver means investors may also be simply moving out of those assets in order to participate in the IPO. We have also seen the AI trade cool a little as well. This suggests that investors may simply be selling current holdings and reallocating assets. In other words, recent demand for the dollar because of the IPO might not all be freshly generated.

 

Still, with the SpaceX IPO retail orders are said to be increase to over $100 billion, there is certainly some level of demand for the dollar from this source. The market capitalisation for the stock is set top $2 trillion with the stock indicated to open at $170-$175 vs $135 IPO price. This is certainly adding to the bullish dollar story. But it is nearly impossible to quantify it.  

 

Week ahead: Central bank bonanza

 

BOJ policy decision: Tuesday, June 16

The slumping yen has kept the USD/JPY supported around 160.00 despite repeated interventions. Unless oil prices crash, there’s pressure is building on the BoJ to act more aggressively in tightening its policy to control inflation. A 25 basis point hike is fully priced in, so it would probably take an accompanying hawkish statement or a larger hike to support the yen.

 

FOMC meeting: Wednesday, June 17

The Fed’s tone has been turning hawkish in recent weeks with inflation data coming in hotter than expected and employment showing surprising resilience. While a rake is not on the table for this meeting, any strong hints of a move in Q4 could trigger a sharp dollar rally.

 

BoE rate decision: Thursday, June 18

UK growth remains fragile, and elevated energy costs continue to cast a shadow over the outlook. Still, the BOE appears under little immediate pressure to raise rates. Market pricing suggests investors expect policymakers to remain patient through much of the summer. Thus, any surprise hikes now or indications thereof could send the pound higher.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R