EUR/USD weekly forecast | November 3, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair fell last week and it could start the new week on the backfoot. But the downside should be limited with 1.15 support now in sight.

US dollar had another good week: Here’s why

Last week was another good one for the US dollar. The greenback found good support on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference where he threw caution on a December. What’s more, the US-China trade deal removed a negative source of uncertainty that had weighed on the dollar in the past. Traders were also refusing to short the US dollar because of the simple fact that there was no compelling negative US news. The ongoing government shutdown means crucial data on the jobs market remains missing for the Fed to use in their December rate decision. That being said, it remains to be seen how much the dollar can rebound further, given the lack of data releases.

EUR/USD forecast: ECB is in a good place

Last week, the releases of stronger Eurozone GDP and the ECB's "good place" rhetoric were not enough to prevent a dollar-driven EUR/USD drop. “From a monetary-policy point of view, we are in a good place,” President Christine Lagarde said at the ECB presser last week. “Is it a fixed good place? No, but we will do whatever is needed to make sure that we stay in a good place.” Those words imply the ECB is basically done with rate cuts unless incoming data suggest otherwise. This should keep a floor under the EUR/USD exchange rate.

 

Week ahead: Key data highlights for EUR/USD forecast

It is not a super important week from Eurozone data point of view. On Monday we will have the final manufacturing PMI releases from France and Germany. We will hear from Lagarde again on Tuesday. If she does discuss monetary policy, don’t expect any changes from her tone last week.  I mean why would you? German factory orders and final services PMIs from Eurozone are the highlights for Wednesday. On Thursday, we will have German industrial production and eurozone retail sales. The last day of the week will feature some trade data.

From the US side of things, well, don’t expect any government data but we will have some private sector data including the ISM PMIs – manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday, as well as ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday. These private sector data releases, especially the ADP report should have a big say in as far as the US dollar’s direction is concerned. That’s because the Fed’s focus has shifted to employment part of its dual mandate and recent weakness here has allowed it to cut rates, most recently last week. A December rate cut could also be on the way unless employment improves markedly and inflation heats up, even if Powell has said that it is not a forgone conclusion.

Technical EUR/USD forecast

 

 

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD chart remains range bound but the longer term view remains bullish – although momentum has been lost. With the EUR/USD closing the week at its lows, expect some further short-term downside initially as the week gets underway. Key short-term support is seen around 1.1500 area now, below which is the August low of 1.1391. Resistance is at 1.1580 and then 1.1600.

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R