
EUR/USD forecast: Growth and geopolitics to decide breakout fate
The Fed may have triggered the rally, but today's GDP releases and developments in the Middle East are likely to decide whether EUR/USD can sustain it.
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The Fed may have triggered the rally, but today's GDP releases and developments in the Middle East are likely to decide whether EUR/USD can sustain it.

The baseline expectation is that the FOMC will hold interest rates unchanged in a 10-2 vote, while keeping a potential September hike firmly on the table - what could surprise traders?

The latest trading sessions continue to show weakness in the Japanese yen. This dynamic is reflected in USD/JPY, which has gained more than 0.7% over the last 3 sessions, highlighting the loss of strength in the Japanese currency.

Near the end of the trading week, one of the most relevant moves in the FX market has been the Japanese yen’s neutrality, even after the release of the US PCE inflation data. After the data was published, USD/JPY did not register a significant move, with price action staying close to 0.05%, reinforcing a phase of short-term indecision.

Near the end of June, one of the most important factors for markets has been the recent strength of the US dollar. This behavior has pressured the euro and can be seen in the latest moves in EUR/USD, which has accumulated a decline of nearly 0.8% over the last two trading sessions.

As the trading week approaches its close, the euro is once again showing consistent short-term weakness. This can be seen in EUR/USD, which has fallen by around -1.10% over the last two sessions, reflecting a renewed selling bias that remains present on the chart for now.

The trading week is coming to an end, and although gold has tried to recover in the short term, the move still looks insufficient against the selling pressure that has remained in place over the past few weeks. Over the last five trading sessions, gold is still down close to -3.00%.