Indices

Historical Jackson Hole returns point to elevated Nikkei 225 volatility around Fed speech day, with Nasdaq 100 direction hinging on Kevin Warsh.

But the question, of course, is how much further oil prices and bond yields can fall. For now, the combination is supportive of risk assets and is helping to sustain a relatively benign decline in the dollar. The focus today will be on US core PCE inflation, due for release shortly, while Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings will provide another test for risk appetite after the US markets close – not just for US indices but for global tech-heavy indices given the influence Nvidia has over the global tech and AI names.

ASX 200 volatility tends to rise after Jackson Hole, while sector correlations highlight the clearest support, resistance and leadership signals.

The ASX 200 faces fresh pressure from rising bond yields, with 9,000 shaping up as a key support zone while options positioning points to 9,100 as the main near-term magnet.

Trading conditions remain challenging for Nasdaq 100. Over the past five trading sessions, the index has declined by nearly 3.2%, reinforcing a meaningful bearish bias in the short term. Selling pressure has persisted even after the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, while bond market yields continue to trade at elevated levels.

The major European indices and US index futures fell by mid-day in London. The pressure was once again exerted by familiar forced. Bond yields rebounded sharply and a renewed surge in oil prices weighed on sentiment.

US index futures were broadly flat by midday London, following a sharp decline in the previous session. That was before the US Treasury announced thar it was increasing buybacks of long-term debt. That announcement has just caused yields to take a dip, while stock futures and gold have rallied.

Nasdaq 100 futures face renewed pressure as rising bond yields, bearish positioning and complacent VIX traders cloud the Wall Street outlook.

The ASX 200 is showing tentative signs of stabilisation after a sharp four-day selloff, but weakness across financials and consumer stocks suggests bulls may need more evidence before calling a swing low.

This week, we have seen further warning signs emerge from crude oil and bond markets. Equity investors have finally started to respond by going a bit defensive. The Nasdaq 100 was down about 1.5% today, with other US indices and European markets also lower. The overcrowed AI trade is losing momentum as yields press higher.

If oil prices continue to rise, this could weigh on European markets which have been quite resilient of late. That could weigh on the German DAX forecast given the nation’s reliance on energy imports.

US equity futures were little changed in the first half of Friday’s session after the S&P 500 closed at another record high in the previous session