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Over the last two trading sessions, WTI crude oil has once again displayed a notable bearish bias, with prices falling nearly 6%. Part of this renewed selling pressure has been driven by recent developments in the Middle East, which have helped temporarily ease the geopolitical tensions that had supported the oil risk premium in previous weeks.
These remain relevant sessions for WTI crude oil, which has recorded an increase of just over 14% on average over the last 5 trading sessions. This behavior indicates that the buying bias remains important in the short term.
Crude oil continues to face difficult trading sessions in the short term. Over the last 5 trading sessions on average, WTI remains down close to -3.5%, with consistent movements below the 70-dollar area. This continues to highlight a selling bias that has remained in place for several weeks.
Oil prices are rising once more as Trump warns Iran has to pay the price for taking too long to negotiate. Despite jawboning the oil market lower earlier this week, it looks like the situation is deteriorating unfortunately and oil prices could start climbing towards $100 once again.
And just like that, oil prices gave up the entire near-6% weekly gains by afternoon trading in London. Crude oil traders had been pricing in disruptions to Iranian oil in recent days amid concerns about military action in the country by the US. But it looks like Trump has decided against that - at least for now - and traders have accordingly reduced the risk premium priced in oil.
Oil prices remain on the backfoot. After initially spiking higher, crude oil turned and closed lower on Monday, as traders reacted to threats of 'very severe' tariffs against Russia. WTI was still holding above the $65 barrel, so it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Still, the crude oil outlook is far from bullish, but we continue to expect more side-ways chop in the coming weeks.
