Trades to Watch in 2026: Crude Oil and Bitcoin Search for a Low 12 29 2025

Oil Prices Spills into 2026- Bitcoin Buyers on Hold, for Now

• A purely technical view on Oil prices and Bitcoin – threats remains lower but exhaustion risk mounts
• WTI plunges more than 22% in 2025 – technical downtrend remains intact into yearly cross
• Trend support now in view- risk for oil price inflection early in the year
• Bitcoin break of multi-year uptrend threatens larger correction-hits lowest momentum read since 2022
• BTC/USD four-year cycle threatens deeper setbacks but focus shifts to potential exhaustion-low in first half of 2026

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Oil prices have continued to trade within the confines of a multi-year downtrend with the decline respecting this pitchfork extending off the 2024 high. Note that weekly RSI has remained below 60 on every recovery since and keeps the momentum profile tilted to the downside into 2026.  

Initial weekly support is now seen at the 54.36-55.10- a region defined by the 2025 swing low and the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline. Note that the 25% parallel converges on this threshold into the yearly cross and a break / weekly close below will be needed to fuel the next major leg of this decline.

Subsequent support is seen at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 advance at 49.44 and 42.02-43.42- a region defined by the 2017 low / low-close and the 1.618% extension off the 2023 decline. Both regions of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Resistance is eyed at the September low and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 61.43/45. Broader bearish invalidation stands at 64.47-65.25- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement, the 52-week moving average, and the 2024 swing low. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: Be on the lookout for a potential exhaustion low heading into the first half of 2026. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the lower parallel- rallies should be limited to 61.45 IF price is heading for a break lower on this stretch with a close below 54.36 needed to fuel the next major leg of this decline.

 

Bitcoin Price Chart- BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; BTC/USD on TradingView

Bitcoin plunged more than 36% off the record highs registered in October with BTC/USD poised to close the year down nearly 7.7%. A break below a key pivot zone in November leaves the outlook tilted to the downside into the yearly cross but the focus is on a potential exhaustion low in the first half of 2026.

Initial weekly support objectives rests with the 2025 low-week close (LWC) and the 38.2% retracement of the late 2022 advance at 83,712 / 84,000 and the 2025 weekly close low at 78,342. Note that the 25% parallel of the descending pitchfork converges on this threshold into the start of the year – look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / close below risking another bout of accelerated losses. Subsequent support rests with the 2021 high / 50% retracement at 69,000-70,943 and the 61.8% retracement / August 2024 LWC at 57,885-58,725.

Weekly resistance is eyed at 93,347-94,236- a region defined by the 2025 yearly open, the May low, and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few months and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 52-week moving average (currently ~101,800) and the July low at 105,130. Strength surpassing this threshold would mark potential resumption of the multi-year uptrend towards objectives at the August high / record high-day close (HDC) at 124,517 and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance at 143.931.

Bottom line: Record capital outflows suggest a larger shift in sentiment, and the threat remains tilted lower heading into next year. The four-year cycle is in full-swing and while previous cycles saw declines of 80% plus, the evolving macro backdrop may limit the extent of the decline- look for greater regulatory clarity, lower rates, and broader adoption to possibly cap this spill next year.

From a trading standpoint, a larger decline here may offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend support. Look for signs of downside exhaustion / price inflection on a stretch towards the lower parallel with a breach above the 52-week moving average ultimately needed to put the bulls back in control.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst

Follow Michael on X @MBForex