US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Rebounds on Wait-and-See Fed

USD/CHF bounces back from a fresh monthly low (0.8186) as the Federal Reserve insists that ‘we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.’

Written by

David Song

Strategist

Wed, 07 May 2025, 07:26 PM

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US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Rebounds on Wait-and-See Fed

USD/CHF may further retrace the decline from the start of the week as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on track to keep US interest rates on hold, but the exchange rate may continue to track the descending channel from earlier this year amid the failed attempts to trade back above the former support zone around the 2023 low (0.8333).

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With that said, the rebound in USD/CHF may turn out to be temporary as it no longer trades within the 2023 range, and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the April low (0.8040) as the 50-Day SMA (0.8567) establishes a negative slope.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

USD/CHF falls to a fresh monthly low () after staging another failed attempt to push back above the former support zone around the 2023 low (0.8333), and failure to hold above 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) may lead to a test of the yearly low (0.8040).
Next area of interest comes in around 0.7810 (161.8% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may trade within a defined range should it hold above 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).
At the same time, USD/CHF may threaten the descending channel from earlier this year on a break/close above 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.8550 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8590 (78.6% Fibonacci extension).