ASX 200 Outlook: Energy Stabilises, Tech Tests Support

The ASX 200 is set for a softer open after overnight weakness on Wall Street following the Federal Reserve's hawkish hold. Yet beneath the surface, several sectors are showing signs of resilience. Energy shares are attempting to stabilise alongside crude oil prices, while technology stocks are finding support despite the Nasdaq's pullback. With options expiry likely to influence today's price action, the 9,000 level remains the key battleground for the broader market.

 

 

 

ASX 200 Sector Analysis: Opportunities Beneath the Surface

ASX Energy Sector Tests Key Support as Crude Oil Finds Stability

Weak crude oil prices have weighed on the ASX Energy Index (XEJ), pushing it below 10,000 and to a three-month low. However, with crude oil finding some stability overnight, select energy stocks may also be in a position to stabilise or even stage a rebound. Notably, the XEJ found support at its 200-day EMA.

• Woodside Energy (WDS) is also holding above its 200-day EMA for now. However, without a bullish catalyst from crude oil, this may be more of a warning sign for bears than a reason for bulls to become overly optimistic.
• Santos (STO) has formed a bullish hammer at its 200-day EMA, accompanied by bullish divergence on the daily RSI (2) from oversold territory.
• Ampol (ALD) held above the June 1 low and formed a bullish pin bar, closing back above its 100-day EMA.

 

Source: ASX, TradingView

 

 

ASX Tech Stocks Seek a Floor Despite Nasdaq Pullback

We need to tread carefully given the Nasdaq's pullback overnight following the hawkish FOMC meeting. However, by yesterday's close, the ASX 200 technology sector (XIJ) was showing signs of stability. A near-term trough may be forming once the initial opening volatility subsides.

• The ASX 200 Information Technology Index (XIJ) formed a bullish outside day after finding support at its 50-day EMA, hinting that a cycle low may be in place. Several large-cap technology stocks are also showing signs of a potential recovery, assuming weakness in the Nasdaq does not significantly dampen local sentiment.
• Wisetech Global (WTC) remains in an established downtrend but is holding above its March low for now. While the series of lower highs since March leaves the door open for a bearish break from a descending triangle, Wednesday's bullish engulfing candle points to the potential for a near-term mean reversion bounce.
• Xero (XRO) is holding above the 70 level and has also formed a bullish engulfing candle. The stock has now filled the April 13 gap higher, which could leave the path of least resistance pointing higher in the near term. The broader 70–90 trading range places 80 as the initial upside level of interest for bulls.
• Technology One (TNE) formed a bullish outside day above its 200-day EMA and closed back above its 20-day EMA. A clear series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact on the daily chart. Given it has already retraced over the past two sessions, a swing low may be close at hand, if not already in place.

 

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ASX 200 Technical Analysis

9,000 Remains the Key Battleground into Expiry

SPI futures point to a weaker open after falling -0.68% overnight, although the largest concentration of options remains centred around 9,000. With today's expiry and next week's expiry both heavily positioned at that strike, 9,000 remains the key battleground and potential magnet for price action.

The next notable resistance sits at 9,100, where put positioning outweighs calls and could leave it acting as a ceiling for any rebound. On the downside, 8,950 is the nearest support zone. A sustained break above 9,000 could open the door to 9,100, while failure to reclaim it may see the index gravitate towards 8,950 support.

 

9,000 Remains the Key Hurdle

The 4-hour ASX 200 chart shows prices pulling back towards the 20-day EMA after meeting resistance just below 9,000 and the weekly R1 pivot. My bias remains to look for evidence of an intraday low and another attempt on 9,000, although the monthly R1 pivot at 8,927 could provide interim resistance.

With options expiry in focus, I am not expecting a decisive close for the ASX 200 today. Bulls may need to tread carefully and focus on stock selection rather than expecting a broad-based breakout.

Source: ASX, TradingView

 

 

 

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge