Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Rally Threatened by Resistance
AUD/USD surged nearly 8.9% off the yearly low with the bulls now testing resistance at the September downtrend. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie weekly technical chart.
Written by
Michael Boutros
Sr. Technical Strategist
Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- AUD/USD rebound off technical support covers 2025 range in three-week advance
- Aussie testing September downtrend- outlook constructive while above 2024 low
- Resistance 6408/29, 6502/50 (key), 6671- Support 6290, 6179-6200 (key), 6007/45
The Australian Dollar is attempting to mark a third-consecutive weekly advance with AUD/USD trading into technical resistance at the September downtrend. While the reversal does keep the medium-term focus higher, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar rebounded off technical support at multi-year lows this month at 6007/45- a region defined by the 2008 swing low and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020 advance. The subsequent rally has now extended nearly 8.9% off the yearly low with AUD/USD trading just below confluent resistance at 6408/29- looking for a reaction off this mark in the weeks ahead with the near-term advance vulnerable while below.
Initial weekly support rests with the yearly low-week reversal close (LWC) at 6290 and is backed by the 2024 low / 2022 LWC at 6179-6200. Losses below this threshold would threaten downtrend resumption back towards key support at the 60-handle. Subsequent support seen at the 2020 LWC at 5795.
A topside breach / close above this pivot zone exposes key resistance at 6502/50- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the Julye close low, and the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- ultimately a close above the 2019 low at 6671 would be needed to suggest a more significant breakout is underway.
Bottom line: The Australian Dollar has rallied into confluent resistance at the September downtrend- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6179 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6429 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.
Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data (Core PCE) and Non-Farm Payrolls next week into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook once we have further clarity on the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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