AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of December High
AUD/USD appears to be pulling back ahead of the December high (0.6515) as it struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.
Written by
David Song
Strategist
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD appears to be pulling back ahead of the December high (0.6515) as it struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of December High
AUD/USD falls from a fresh yearly high (0.6450) even as Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds steady at 2.4% in March, and the V-shape recovery in the exchange rate may start to unravel should it fail to defend the rebound from the weekly low (0.6356).
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
Nevertheless, signs of persistent price growth keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe is the Board’s highest priority,’ and AUD/USD may continue to trade to fresh yearly highs as the central bank seems to be in no rush to unwind its restrictive policy.
With that said, AUD/USD may stage further attempts to test the December high (0.6515) should it defend the advance from the weekly low (0.6356), but the threat of a US-China trade war may undermine the V-shape recovery in the exchange rate as it clouds the outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD is little changed from the start of the week as it falls from a fresh yearly high (0.6450), and failure to defend the rebound from the weekly low (0.6356) may push the exchange rate back towards 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
- A break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6140 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region brings the 0.5990 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6020 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar, but AUD/USD stage further attempts to test the December high (0.6515) should it defend the advance from the weekly low (0.6356).
- Need a break/close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region to open up 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the November high (0.6688).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (APR 2025)
USD/JPY Defends Rebound from Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD on Cusp of Testing 2024 High
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Weekly Low Ahead of Euro Area GDP Report
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Open an account today
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.
Economic calendar
Related articles
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support 8 28 2026
Warsh's comments accelerated the EUR/USD selloff, raising the stakes as buyers look to stabilize the broader recovery.
Gold and S&P 500 analysis: What now after Warsh’s hawkish speech?
The dollar surged across the board after the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with a hawkish-leaning speech at the Jackson Hole summit. All the bearish dollar bets that had been accumulated since last Friday on the back of data weakness and bond market troubles had to be squared and that triggered a short squeeze rally for the dollar. Gold and silver dropped, as a result, as too did bitcoin, while US indices were giving back earlier gains.
EUR/USD forecast: All eyes on Warsh at Jackson Hole - Forex Friday
For much of this week, the EUR/USD has been edging lower with the US dollar regaining some ground after last week’s sell-off that was triggered, in part, by the bond market worries. Investors have been unwilling to bet further against the US dollar so far this week ahead of Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole summit, due later today.