Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Brace for FOMC 9 17 2025
The Australian Dollar is trading near uptrend resistance with the FOMC on tap later today. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.
Written by
Michael Boutros
Sr. Technical Strategist
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD rallies over 4% off the August low- bulls eye resistance at fresh yearly highs
- Australian Dollar risk for exhaustion / price inflection- FOMC rate decision on tap
- Resistance 6700, 6723 (key), 6810/16- Support 6650, 6622, 6590 (key)
The Australian Dollar has rallied nearly 2.3% since the start of September with AUD/USD trading to fresh yearly highs today. The advance is now approaching uptrend resistance ahead of today’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we highlighted the risk for exhaustion as AUD/USD was approaching resistance and that, “losses would need to be limited to 6458 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6590 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend in AUD/USD.” Aussie fell more than 1% into the September open with price registering an intraday low at 6483 before rebounding sharply higher. The advance has extended more than 3.1% off the monthly low with AUD/USD now trading just below resistance at the upper parallel (blue) / 6700- looking for a reaction off this zone IF reached over the next few days with the rally vulnerable heading into today’s FOMC interest rate decision.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of near-term ascending pitchfork off the August low with he weekly opening-range carved just above the median-line. Weekly-open support rests at 6650 and is backed by the 2024 September low at 6622 and the July high-day close (HDC) at 6590. Ultimately, a break below the late-August trendline (red) would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6550- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Initial resistance is eyed at 6700 and is backed closely by the 78.6% retracement at 6723- a topside breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 2023 /2024 yearly opens at 6810/16.
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