Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Vulnerable to Fresh Yearly Lows
USD/CAD may fall to fresh yearly lows should it fail to defend the rebound from the weekly low (1.3770).
Written by
David Song
Strategist
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD
USD/CAD is little changed from the start of the week as it snaps the recent series of lower highs and lows, but the exchange rate may fall to fresh yearly lows should it fail to defend the rebound from the weekly low (1.3770).
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Vulnerable to Fresh Yearly Lows
Keep in mind, USD/CAD cracked the November low (1.3821) during the previous month on the back of US Dollar weakness, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the October low (1.3473) as it appears to be searching for support.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
As a result, a further decline in USD/CAD may push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward oversold territory, but the oscillator may show the bearish momentum abating should it continue to hold above 30.
With that said, USD/CAD may attempt to retrace the selloff from April should it defend the advance from the weekly low (1.3770), but the weakness in the exchange rate may persist as the 50-Day SMA (1.4173) establishes a negative slope.
USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CAD Price on TradingView
- USD/CAD is little changed from the start of the week as it bounces back from a fresh yearly low (1.3770), but another failed attempt to close above 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension) may push the exchange rate toward the 1.3700 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 1.3710 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region.
- Next area of interest comes in around 1.3630 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with a break/close below 1.3520 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) opening up the October low (1.3473).
- At the same time, a close above 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension) may push USD/CAD back toward the 1.3940 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.4000 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone with the next area of interest coming in around 1.4110 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (APR 2025)
USD/JPY Defends Rebound from Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision
British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD on Cusp of Testing 2024 High
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Weekly Low Ahead of Euro Area GDP Report
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Open an account today
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.
Economic calendar
Related articles
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support 8 28 2026
Warsh's comments accelerated the EUR/USD selloff, raising the stakes as buyers look to stabilize the broader recovery.
Gold and S&P 500 analysis: What now after Warsh’s hawkish speech?
The dollar surged across the board after the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with a hawkish-leaning speech at the Jackson Hole summit. All the bearish dollar bets that had been accumulated since last Friday on the back of data weakness and bond market troubles had to be squared and that triggered a short squeeze rally for the dollar. Gold and silver dropped, as a result, as too did bitcoin, while US indices were giving back earlier gains.
EUR/USD forecast: All eyes on Warsh at Jackson Hole - Forex Friday
For much of this week, the EUR/USD has been edging lower with the US dollar regaining some ground after last week’s sell-off that was triggered, in part, by the bond market worries. Investors have been unwilling to bet further against the US dollar so far this week ahead of Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole summit, due later today.