Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises after weaker jobs data

US futures        

Dow futures 0.8%, S&P 500 futures 0.92%  & Nasdaq futures  1.2%

European futures

FTSE 0.4%,  DAX  1%

• US stocks rise after weaker NFP data
• US jobs added 29k vs 90k forecast
• Unemployment rose unexpectedly to 4.2%
• Oil falls on talks of crude and diese supply release

U.S. Stocks Jump as NFP Misses Expectations

U.S. stocks are rising after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data saw markets rein in rate hike expectations.

The U.S. nonfarm payroll report showed that just 29,000 jobs were added in September, well below the 90,000 forecast. Meanwhile, August’s job gains were revised lower to 133,000 from 162,000.

The unemployment rate also unexpectedly increased to 4.2%, up from 4.1%, while average hourly earnings were weaker than expected across the board. On a monthly basis, average earnings rose 0.1%, well below the 0.3% expected. Annually, average hourly earnings rose 3%, below the 3.3% forecast.

The market had already reined in October rate hike expectations to around 30% before the data release. However, the weaker-than-expected jobs report has effectively removed the prospect of an October hike from the market’s immediate focus.

The three-month moving average of job gains is now around 50,000, suggesting that job growth is slowing significantly rather than simply moderating from strong levels.

Following the data, Treasury yields are falling and stocks have jumped higher as markets increasingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, potentially for the remainder of the year.

The market had been pricing in around 26 basis points of additional tightening before the end of 2026, which has now fallen to around 22 basis points.

Corporate Movers

Nike is falling more than 10% after missing revenue expectations in its fiscal Q4 results. The company reported a 4% decline in sales amid weakness in its China business and also laid out plans to reduce headcount in 2027.

Dow Jones Forecast – Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones trades within a descending channel. The index briefly broke below the lower band of the channel before finding support just above the 200 EMA around 50,540.

The hammer candlestick pattern and respect of the 200 EMA could point to a potential reversal of the recent downtrend.

Buyers would need to rise above resistance around 51,500, followed by 52,000. Above here, attention turns to 52,300, the 50 EMA and the upper band of the falling channel.

A sustained break above this zone would put the index on a firmer footing and bring 53,800 into focus.

Sellers will need to break below the 200 EMA around 50,500 to create a lower low and open the door towards 50,000.

FX Markets – Dollar Falls, EUR/USD Rises

The U.S. dollar is falling away from a 17-month high following the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

Markets are no longer pricing an October Fed hike and have reduced expectations for further tightening this year, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields.

EUR/USD is rising on the weaker U.S. dollar and after eurozone inflation came in hotter than expected. Eurozone September inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in August and ahead of expectations of 3.6%. Energy prices were the main driver, while core inflation rose only modestly to 2.5%, from 2.4%. Still French political concerns could limit the upside.

GBP/USD is rising after a weaker USD and as investors digest the latest manufacturing PMI data. Manufacturing activity improved to 51.9 in September, up from 51.7 in August, although input costs also increased. Markets are expecting the Bank of England to hike rates at its November meeting after warnings from Governor Andrew Bailey that an energy price spike caused by the Iran war could fuel broader inflation.

Oil Prices Fall as Fuel Supply Concerns Ease

Oil prices are falling around 2%, while European gasoline futures are down 5% on reports of potential talks around additional diesel and crude stock releases.

Both Brent and WTI are on track for weekly declines. Brent is around 4% lower across the week, while WTI is down around 3%.

EU countries are discussing a proposal to release additional diesel stockpiles in response to U.S. pressure on European nations to release more supplies and ease concerns over shortages.

The proposal includes the release of 50 million barrels of diesel from European stockpiles and 50 million barrels of crude oil from the IEA.

With Middle Eastern crude flows recovering, attention is increasingly turning towards refined-product supply.

The key shift in the oil market is therefore from crude supply disruption to refined-product availability, with potential stock releases adding further pressure to prices.