Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX slips as Treasury yields keep rising

US futures         

Dow futures -0.57%, S&P 500 futures 0.35%  & Nasdaq futures  -0.2%

European futures

FTSE -1.67%,  DAX  -0.8%

• US stocks slip amid rising yields
• ISM manufacturing PMI data due
• Micron Technology beats forecast, supporting the AI trade
• Oil rises 2% as China suspends fuel exports

U.S. Stocks Slip as Rising Yields Offset Tech Gains

U.S. stocks are falling at the start of Q4, as gains in software stocks offset concerns over soaring Treasury yields.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.66%.

Rising yields come despite yesterday’s cooler-than-expected core PCE data and following an upward revision to U.S. GDP growth. A backdrop of stubborn inflation, resilient economic growth and elevated oil prices is adding pressure to bonds.

Attention now turns to ISM manufacturing PMI data, due shortly and expected to show that activity increased to 55 in September from 54.6 in August.

The data comes ahead of a series of Fed officials due to speak later today, who could provide further insight into the outlook for interest rates.

The market is currently pricing in a 37% probability of a rate hike in October, down from 70% at the start of the week. It is pricing in an 86% probability of a hike before the end of the year.

Strong data and hawkish commentary could see those expectations rise, pushing yields higher and limiting the upside in equities.

Corporate Movers

Micron Technology is soaring after reporting better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results. EPS came in at $33.42 on revenue of $54.23 billion, ahead of expectations of $31.61 and $51.07 billion, respectively. Guidance also beat forecasts, reviving enthusiasm around the AI trade.

Alphabet is rising 2% after unveiling its latest AI model, Gemini 4 Argon, including improvements in cybersecurity coding.

Accenture has jumped 17% following fiscal Q4 results. Revenue of $18.68 billion exceeded guidance of $17.75 billion, while EPS of $3.29 topped expectations.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

Having broken out above falling trend-line resistance, the Nasdaq briefly spiked to a fresh record high of 30,880 before easing back to consolidate around 30,500. The price trades above the 50 and 200 EMAs.

The RSI supports further upside as it remains below 70. However, the long upper wick on today’s candle is a reason to remain cautious.

Buyers would need to rise above 30,880 to reach fresh record highs, bringing 31,000 into focus.

Immediate support is seen at 30,250, the August and July highs. A break below here would expose the psychological 30,000 level and falling trend-line support, followed by the 50 EMA at 29,635.

It would take a break below 28,950 for sellers to gain traction towards 28,250, the June low.

FX Markets – Dollar Rises, EUR/USD Falls

The U.S. dollar is rising for a fourth straight session, reaching its highest level since March 2025. The currency also recorded a sixth consecutive quarter of gains in Q3, its longest winning streak since 2022.

The dollar is tracking Treasury yields higher, even as Fed rate hike expectations have cooled following yesterday’s core PCE data.

EUR/USD is falling to a 15-month low below 1.1300 as bond yields across Europe rise.

The yield on French bonds surged to a multi-year high on concerns over France’s finances after the minority government presented its budget plans. The government aims to bring the public deficit back to 5% of GDP in 2027, compared with an expected 5.4% this year.

The decline in the euro comes despite manufacturing PMI figures beating expectations. Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 in September from 52.7 in August, ahead of expectations of 52.7.

Even so, growth risks remain. More aggressive tightening could potentially weigh on economic activity, highlighting the fine balance the ECB needs to strike between containing inflation and supporting growth.

GBP/USD is falling 0.3% to 1.3225 against a stronger U.S. dollar and as gilt yields continue to climb. The 30-year gilt yield topped 6% for the first time since 1998, tightening financial conditions across the long end of the curve.

The move higher in yields comes as attention turns to Chancellor John Healey’s Budget on October 28, with the government facing the challenge of balancing spending commitments against higher borrowing costs.

Higher yields are tightening financial conditions and could potentially reduce the need for further Bank of England rate hikes.

Oil Prices Rise as China Tightens Fuel Supply

Oil prices are rising for a second straight day as concerns over Chinese fuel supplies mount.

China has suspended oil-product exports, a move that could tighten fuel markets already dealing with supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Brent is trading more than 1.6% higher at around $100 a barrel, compared with a 0.4% increase in WTI. This follows a 14% gain for Brent across September, compared with a 4% rise in WTI.

Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, keeping domestic product availability high but tightening international markets.

This comes as the Trump administration considers a diesel ban, which is helping keep WTI more constrained relative to Brent.

Attention remains on Middle Eastern supply as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict show few signs of progress.

Government data showed that exports from the Gulf recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day last week, in line with their 2025 average, which could limit further upside in oil prices.