EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week | March 30, 2026

The FX markets remained largely in a risk off mode with the US dollar extending its gains while currencies of energy-importing economic regions like the euro remaining under pressure. This was despite the fact global stock markets managed to bounce back a little, as Brent oil prices consolidated near the recent highs. Still, stock markets were coming off their earlier highs at the time of writing, after being supported by Donald Trump signalling there had been progress in discussions with Iran. As we have seen in recent times, this something Tehran continues to deny and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another push back from them. If so, this will likely keep oil prices underpinned and the EUR/USD forecast undermined.

 

Earlier, the US president posted that serious discussions with a “new and more reasonable regime” to end the conflict in Iran were going well. However, Iran has continually pushed back on that claim recently, making it sound like Trump is simply buying time and jawboning the markets. This time, there hasn’t been too much pushback yet, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

 

Watch oil prices for direction

 

If today’s recovery in stocks gets faded, this should be another bearish factor for FX majors. Keep an eye on oil prices too, which remain relatively supported despite the mild optimism emitted in the stock markets. With Brent crude still comfortably above $110, the inflation outlook is becoming more complicated. Markets have already been pushing back against any lingering expectations of rate cuts, with some floating the idea of further tightening. So, a lot hinges on how the Middle East situation develops. If we don’t start to see genuine signs of de-escalation, oil prices could easily climb further, which could take intensify the heat on risk assets. At the moment, that looks quite likely as Iran doesn’t seem in a rush to compromise as it wants to use high energy prices as a negotiating strategy. Until there’s something more concrete on a ceasefire or diplomatic progress, any short-term moves against the prevailing trend should be treated with caution.

 

Technical EUR/USD forecast and levels to watch

 

The EUR/USD forecast is looking increasingly bearish. The pair has broken below what appears to be a bear flag pattern and, importantly, has also slipped below the 1.1500 level. This was a key support area that previously held during the height of the Middle East tensions last week. This time, however, the EUR/USD has broken its trendline support, confirming a bearish continuation signal.

 

 

If geopolitical tensions intensify, we could see the EUR/USD go for a retest of the recent lows around 1.1410 area next. Beyond that, a deeper decline opens the door to the August low at 1.1391. Below that, round handles like 1.13, 1.12 etc. will come into play if selling pressure persists.

 

On the upside, 1.1500 now becomes short-term resistance after the breakdown below it today. Above that, the descending trendline and the prior high around 1.1578 represent the next key resistance zone. A break back above that trendline would violate the current bearish outlook. But for now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R