EUR/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week | November 24, 2025

The EUR/USD initially rallied in early European trade before coming off its highs as the US session got underway, and was threatening to turn lower at the time of writing. Its earlier gains were partly driven by optimism about the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the slump in natural gas prices in Europe. But with European indices fading into the close, the key theme remained largely in place. Despite US stocks being sharply higher, there was a danger that they too could fade later on in the day. The recent selling of risk assets including cryptos, stocks and Japanese bonds has kept the EUR/USD under pressure. If the selling of risk resumes this week, then that could benefit the dollar more than the euro. As there remains considerable downside risks to overpriced US technology stocks, we are erring on the side of caution about risk appetite this week. That makes us neutral to slightly bearish on the EUR/USD forecast by default, even if we are not bullish on the dollar long term.

 

Can the dollar extend recovery?

 

In a week thinned by Thursday's US Thanksgiving Day holiday, we still have a couple of US data releases to look forward to. The September retail sales data will be released tomorrow, and should this turn out to be quite strong as expected i.e., +0.4% m/m on headline and +0.3% mm/m on the core front, then the market will probably have more reason to bid up the dollar. It is also worth keeping an eye on the Fed’s Beige Book Wednesday, which provides anecdotal economic viewpoint from its 12 reporting districts. Any clear sightings that the slowdown in employment is broadening, this could see investors cement expectations about a December rate cut. In fact, on Friday, we heard from New York Fed President John Williams who suggested that he favours another cut in December, causing market pricing of a cut to rise back to 75%.

 

German economy remains bleak – Ifo

 

The November Ifo index, released earlier today, suggests that the German economy remains stuck in a downtrend heading into year end. That’s the view of Germany’s businesses, who are not as optimistic as the previous month with the Ifo index coming in at 88.1 in November, down from 88.4 the month before. After the early optimism in the year sparked by Germany’s unprecedented fiscal stimulus to invest significantly in infrastructure and defence, the mood has changed. The new government made a few unpopular budgetary decisions and that kept political tensions high in Germany, while competition from China has also hurt the economy.

 

Key data that could impact the EUR/USD forecast this week

 

We will have more data to look forward to from Germany and the US this week, which should keep the EUR/USD forecast in sharp focus. Things pick up on Tuesday with US retail sales, PPI, pending home sales, the Richmond manufacturing index, and CB consumer confidence all on the calendar. On Wednesday, the U.S. will release jobless claims, durable goods orders, and GDP figures. We’ll also get the core PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — along with a few other indicators. Thursday brings a U.S. bank holiday, and markets will see shorter, irregular trading hours on Friday. Still, Friday includes notable Eurozone releases, including German CPI and several other regional indicators that could impact the EUR/USD forecast.

 

EUR/USD technical forecast and key levels to watch

 

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD forecast has taken a more bearish turn. After breaking out of what was effectively a bearish flag formation—one that has persisted since the September peak—the pair failed to generate any convincing upward momentum. This lack of follow-through implies that bullish traders may have been caught on the wrong side, expecting a continuation that simply never arrived.

 

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near the 1.1500 zone, a critical area of support. A clear break below this level would open the door to several downside targets. The first notable level is the August low at 1.1391. Beneath that, a broader support region sits between 1.1214 and 1.1275, marking highs from prior years. These zones could come under pressure if bearish momentum deepens.

On the upside, the 1.1600 level now serves as a key resistance should the market attempt any meaningful rebound.

Beyond the technical setup, broader risk sentiment will continue to drive direction. If equity markets retreat, EUR/USD—which tends to move in line with risk assets—could also see further weakness.

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R