Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Four-Week Standoff at Major Support Nears a Breakout 7 17 2026

EUR/USD is stuck in a range just above pivotal support as a four-week standoff enters a critical phase ahead of next week's ECB rate decision.

Written by

Michael Boutros

Sr. Technical Strategist

Sat, 18 Jul 2026, 10:00 PM

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EUR/USD has spent four consecutive weeks in a range just above a pivotal support zone.
The July opening range remains intact, increasing the focus on a breakout to define the next major directional move.
The April decline remains the dominant trend while below key resistance, but bears remain vulnerable as long as major support holds.
The ECB rate decision on tap- President Lagarde's guidance on inflation and growth risks could provide the catalyst for a range break.
Resistance 1.1578, 1.1649 (key), 1.1746/75- Support 1.1355/94 (key), 1.1228, 1.1110/64

EUR/USD heads into the new week at a critical technical inflection point after spending the past month holding above a major multi-year support pivot. The pair remains trapped within a well-defined July opening range, leaving traders focused on the next breakout for confirmation of the broader directional bias. While the April downtrend remains intact beneath key resistance, the ECB policy decision and President Lagarde's outlook on inflation, growth, and the recent rebound in energy prices could provide the catalyst needed to resolve this increasingly compressed technical setup. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

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Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro H2 2026 Forecast we noted that the EUR/USD correction was, “testing confluent support at the median line of a multi-year uptrend. The risk / focus is on possible inflection off this zone into the start of Q3. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 1.1578 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Euro has now spent four-consecutive weeks trading just above this support pivot with the July opening range preserved heading into next week. Look for the breakout to offer guidance here in the days ahead.

Initial weekly resistance is being tested at the median line and is backed by the January low at 1.1578. Key resistance is eyed with the 61.8% retracement of the April decline and the 52-week moving average at 1.1649. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a lager trend reversal is underway. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the objective yearly open and the 2025 high-week close (HWC) / high close at 1.1746/75.

A break below this key zone would threaten resumption of the yearly downtrend with subsequent support objectives eyed at the 2023 high close at 1.1228 and 1.1110/64- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance, the 2024 high-week close (HWC), and the May low-week close (LWC). Note that the lower parallel converges on this zone into the August open- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: EUR/USD is trading just above pivotal support with a well-defined monthly range preserved heading into next week. Look for the breakout to drive the next leg in price. From a trading standpoint, the April downtrend remains intact while below 1.1649, but the bears are vulnerable while above 1.1355. Rallies should be limited to 1.1578 IF price is head heading for a break lower on this stretch with a break below support needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Keep in mind the European Central Bank rate decision is on tap next week and the ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged after hiking 25bps in June. Traders will be focused on President Lagarde’s commentary on the balance of risk for inflation and growth amid the recent rebound in energy prices. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.