Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX extends gains as oil, Treasury yields fall

US futures        

Dow futures 0.02% S&P 500 futures 0.13%  & Nasdaq futures  0.36%

European futures

FTSE -0.90%,  DAX  -0.88%

• US stocks extend gains into Friday
• The market is seeing the Fed rate cut as a sign of credibility
• 10-year Treasury yields ease as oil prices fall further
• Oil falls for a third straight day as increased Saudi exports

Stocks rise as oil and Treasury yields fall

U.S. stocks are heading higher, extending yesterday's post-Fed bounce, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way as falling oil prices help ease inflation concerns.

U.S. stocks closed higher yesterday, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, the S&P 500 jumping 1.1%, whilst the Nasdaq staged a 1.7% comeback following the Fed rate hike on Wednesday.

This week has been a busy one for investors, with the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates by 25 basis points whilst policymakers signalled more rate hikes to come this year.

However, rather than interpreting the Fed's hawkish decision as negative, many investors have seen it as an indication that the central bank is committed to containing energy-fuelled inflation pressures and as proof of its independence, given Trump's desire for rate cuts.

In addition to the central bank focus, oil prices have also been a main driver of stocks this week, as falling oil prices have helped ease inflation concerns, pulling Treasury yields lower.

U.S. Treasury yields reached a 19-year high above 5% earlier this week, but have eased back below this key psychological level, allowing demand for equities to recover.

Corporate Movers

Nvidia will be in focus after CEO Jensen Huang said at a summit on Thursday that Nvidia will double its chip sales next year compared with this year. The forecast marks another indication of continued growth over the next six quarters.

The company recently revealed that it expected 70% growth in the fiscal year ending January 2028, reaching approximately $673 billion in revenue.

Netflix is falling 3% after receiving a broker downgrade. Wells Fargo lowered the stock to underweight on worrying engagement trends and weaker content expected to be released in H2 2026.

The Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq continues to trade within a holding pattern, capped on the downside by 28,900 and on the upside by 29,700. The price is testing the upper bounds of the holding pattern, having risen above the 50 EMA, whilst the RSI is also above 50, keeping buyers hopeful of a breakout to the upside.

A rise above 29,700 opens the door to 30,000, the psychological level and the falling trend line resistance. Above here, 30,300, the July high, comes into focus before attention turns to 30,750 and fresh record levels.

On the downside, support is seen at 28,900. A break below here, around the 100 EMA at 28,775, opens the door to a deeper move towards 28,250, the June low, before exposing the 200 EMA at 27,500.

FX Markets – Dollar rises, GBP/USD falls

The USD is rising and is on track to gain across the week following the hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The yen has weakened sharply despite the BoJ hiking rates after Governor Ueda failed to convince the market that the central bank was serious about further tightening.

EUR/USD is rising, although the pair is set to fall 1% across the week on U.S. dollar gains. The ECB and the Fed both hiked rates. However, the Fed's decision has come in as more hawkish than the ECB, which still sees no significant evidence of second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices. However, the central bank did increase its growth and inflation forecasts.

GBP/USD is hovering around a six-week low despite stronger-than-expected UK retail sales. Sales grew 0.5% month-on-month after falling at the same pace in July. Expectations had been for a 0.2% decline.

Still, the pound is on track to book losses of 1.3% this week after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged.

Oil eases for a third day as supply fears ease

Oil prices are down 2% on Friday, extending losses for a third straight day amid easing concerns over Saudi supply disruption, which has overshadowed anxiety surrounding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Both WTI and Brent are on track for their third weekly decline, as concerns over tightness have been eased by Saudi Arabia loading more crude via Oman and thanks to a build in U.S. oil product inventories.

Despite the fall, the current fundamental background still supports oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel.

Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and the U.S. and Iran have held no peace talks since the collapse of an agreement in June.