Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX falls on AI chip worries, SpaceX joins the index

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.29%, S&P futures -0.13%  & Nasdaq futures -0.95%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE 0.65% & DAX -0.63%

• U.S futures are mixed with chips under pressure
• Samsung profits fail to calm AI worries
• Space-X joins the Nasdaq 100 index
• Oil rises amid hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz

U.S. Futures Mixed as AI Rally Faces Fresh Test Ahead of Fed Minutes

U.S. futures are mixed on Tuesday, with Nasdaq futures under pressure as semiconductor stocks decline and investors become increasingly selective towards AI-related equities despite another strong set of earnings from Samsung.

Samsung reported a sharp jump in second-quarter operating profit, comfortably beating expectations. However, the market reaction highlights a broader shift in investor sentiment. The debate has moved beyond whether AI demand remains strong to whether the enormous investment in AI infrastructure can generate returns quickly enough to justify current valuations.

With earnings season about to begin, the bar has been set exceptionally high. Robust earnings alone may no longer be enough to support share prices if companies fail to demonstrate improving margins, monetisation or disciplined capital spending.

The Nasdaq has rallied around 30% since its March low, leaving positioning increasingly crowded and raising the risk of profit-taking should earnings or guidance disappoint.

Attention now turns to Wednesday's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting.

The minutes relate to a meeting that markets viewed as more hawkish than expected, with nine of the eighteen policymakers projecting at least one further rate hike before the end of the year. Although softer labour market data since then have reduced expectations of further tightening, the minutes could remind investors that inflation remains the Fed's primary concern.

Corporate Movers

SpaceX is falling 2% ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, which would typically be supportive amid the prospect of significant passive buying. JPMorgan estimates the index addition could generate around $4.3 billion of passive inflows. However, recent IPOs experience high levels of volatility.

Semiconductor stocks are weaker following Samsung's results. Micron and Lam Research are both down around 5% in pre-market trading as investors continue to lock in profits across the AI sector after a blistering rally and amid concerns over it looking stretched. Although Samsung reported operating profit of $58.4 trillion, around nineteen times higher than a year ago and above expectations, the results did little to reassure investors that current AI-related valuations remain justified.

Rivian is down around 9% after announcing plans to issue 75 million new shares through a secondary offering. While the company also raised its delivery guidance, the prospect of shareholder dilution is weighing on sentiment.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

After reaching a record high around 30,750, the Nasdaq has begun to form a series of lower highs while testing support at the rising trendline and the 50-day SMA near 29,350.

A break below this support would expose 28,900, followed by the June low near 28,400. A move beneath that level would create a lower low, opening the door towards the psychological 28,000 level before bringing 27,000 and the 200-day SMA near 26,250 into focus.

Should the 50-day SMA continue to hold, buyers will look to reclaim 30,000 before targeting 30,325 and then the key resistance zone around 30,650.

FX Markets – Dollar Firms as Treasury Yields Rise

The U.S. dollar is edging higher alongside Treasury yields as renewed tensions in the Middle East support safe-haven demand and raise concerns that higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook ahead of tomorrow's Fed minutes.Even so, markets continue to price fewer Fed rate hikes than they did before last week's softer-than-expected payrolls report, limiting the dollar's upside.

GBP/USD is easing after an eight-session rally. Sterling continues to find support from confidence that likely incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will maintain the UK's fiscal rules, helping calm concerns over government borrowing. At the same time, markets have reduced expectations for further Bank of England tightening.

USD/JPY remains close to a four-decade high, keeping traders alert to the risk of intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance. Although the yen strengthened briefly last week, the move lacked the characteristics of official intervention, suggesting authorities may still be waiting for a more opportune moment.

Oil Rises as Shipping Risks Return to Focus

Oil prices are edging higher after reports of attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz temporarily revived concerns over shipping security.

The incident has reintroduced a modest geopolitical risk premium into crude markets, although it remains considerably smaller than the premium seen during the height of the Middle East conflict.

The rebound comes despite Saudi Aramco cutting the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers, highlighting growing competition for market share.

The move follows OPEC+'s decision to increase August production targets, reinforcing expectations that global crude supply will continue to recover during the second half of the year.