Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX rebounds but is on track to fall 6% in June

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.5%, S&P futures 1.25%  & Nasdaq futures 1.3%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -0.9% & DAX 0.15%

• U.S futures rise with tech leading the move
• Nasdaq is set to fall 6% in June vs 1.6% gains in the DJIA
• SpaceX rises as it prepares to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7
• Oil steadies after falling 20% in 2-weeks

U.S. Stocks Rebound as Tech Recovers Ahead of Key Jobs Data

U.S. stocks are set for a stronger open, led by technology shares rebounding after last week's sharp sell-off as investors look to rebuild positions amid an improving macro backdrop.

Nasdaq 100 futures are trading more than 1% higher after the tech-heavy index fell 4.6% last week amid a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, highlighting a shift towards more defensive areas of the market.

The rebound suggests investors are not abandoning the AI theme altogether but are becoming more selective. Last week's sell-off reflected concerns over stretched valuations and the enormous capital required to build AI infrastructure rather than a deterioration in underlying demand. As a result, long positions in the AI trade are returning, with Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD and Intel all trading higher pre-market.

Even so, the Nasdaq remains down more than 6% in June, its worst monthly performance since March last year as investors continue to reassess both the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the sustainability of the AI rally. The Dow is set to rise 1.6% in June.

Following the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting earlier this month, markets continue to price the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate hike this year. Higher discount rates have weighed on long-duration growth stocks, particularly those whose valuations rely on earnings further into the future. At the same time, investors are increasingly questioning when the enormous investment in AI infrastructure will begin to generate meaningful returns.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's speech at the Sintra ECB Forum on Wednesday and Thursday's non-farm payrolls report, both of which could provide further clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Corporate Movers

Comcast is jumping 20% after announcing plans to spin off its media assets, including NBCUniversal and Sky, in a move aimed at unlocking shareholder value. The separation is expected to be completed within a year.

SpaceX is rising 2% after Nasdaq announced on Friday that the stock will be added to the Nasdaq 100 before trading begins on July 7. The inclusion is expected to trigger passive buying from index-tracking ETFs.

Alphabet is trading 1% higher after joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Verizon in the 30-stock blue-chip index.

Oracle is rising 3% as investors buy the dip after the stock posted its worst weekly performance since 2001. Shares fell 19% last week amid concerns over rising debt levels and questions over whether the returns from its AI investment programme will justify the increased spending.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq's recovery from the June low at 28,250 ran into resistance at 30,650, creating a lower high beneath the record high of 30,750.

The index has since broken below both the 20-day SMA and the rising trendline support but is finding support around the 50-day SMA near 29,000.

For now, this support is holding. Buyers will look to reclaim 29,650, where the broken trendline now acts as resistance and coincides with the May 15 swing high.

Above here, attention turns to 30,000 and then 30,650. A break above 30,750 would bring fresh record highs into focus.

Should sellers break below the 50-day SMA, attention would shift towards 28,250, the June low. A break below there would create a lower low and expose 26,250, the January 2026 high and key long-term support.

FX Markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The U.S. dollar is softer on Monday but remains on track for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025. The dollar's rally has been driven by resilient economic data, sticky inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further. Data last week showed Core PCE remained at a three-year high, while GDP was revised higher, reinforcing confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. Attention now turns to Thursday's non-farm payrolls report.

EUR/USD is rising above 1.1400 as the weaker U.S. dollar offsets caution ahead of the ECB's annual Sintra Forum. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak later today and again on Wednesday, while Eurozone inflation data will also be closely watched.

GBP/USD is edging higher alongside the softer dollar as markets digest comments from Andy Burnham, the expected next UK Prime Minister. Burnham has pledged to devolve greater fiscal powers away from Westminster in an effort to boost regional growth. However, investors remain cautious given the UK's stretched public finances, meaning any expansionary fiscal agenda could come under pressure from the gilt market.

Oil Steadies as U.S.-Iran Talks Resume

Oil prices are steady after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt the latest flare-up in hostilities and resume negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude remains close to a four-month low after falling around 10% last week, with prices now down almost 20% over the past two weeks as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to its highest level since the conflict began.

The market is increasingly focused on recovering supply rather than geopolitical risk. As more crude reaches global markets and the geopolitical risk premium continues to unwind, oil prices are likely to remain under pressure unless negotiations break down or demand strengthens materially.