Weekly Equities Outlook: Nike, Tesla, Constellation Brands

Nike Q4 Earnings

Nike is expected to report Q4 earnings on Tuesday after the market close.

Expectations are for EPS of $0.11, down from $0.14 a year ago, while revenue is expected to fall 2% to $10.85 billion.

The headline numbers are likely to be less important than evidence that CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround strategy is beginning to gain traction.

Investors will be focused on two key areas: whether sales in Greater China are stabilising and whether inventory levels continue to improve.

China remains Nike's biggest challenge. Management previously warned Greater China revenue could fall around 20% owing to digital channel restructuring, lower-quality inventory reductions and increasing competition from domestic brands.

The key question is whether China is nearing an inflection point. If revenue declines prove less severe than feared or management signals the inventory reset is largely complete, investors could begin looking beyond weak near-term earnings towards a recovery in margins.

Inventory remains equally important. Nike's strategy of prioritising direct-to-consumer sales left wholesalers understocked while creating excess inventory in core lifestyle products. Elliott Hill's turnaround focuses on rebuilding wholesale relationships, reducing promotions and shifting the product mix back towards performance footwear.

Evidence that inventories are normalising and wholesale demand is improving would strengthen confidence that the turnaround is progressing, even if earnings remain under pressure.

How to trade Nike earnings

Nike remains in a long-term downtrend after falling more than 30% over the past year.

The price trades below both the 50 and 200-week SMAs after falling back to levels last seen in 2015.

Sellers will look for a break below $40 to expose the 2014 low near $30.

Any recovery would first need to reclaim $50.20 before targeting the 50-week SMA and falling trendline resistance around $60. A move above $64 would create a higher high and shift the longer-term outlook.

Tesla Q2 Deliveries

Tesla reports second-quarter delivery figures on July 2.

Delivery numbers are closely watched because they provide one of the earliest indications of quarterly revenue and demand.

Consensus expects deliveries of roughly 406,000 vehicles, representing around 6% growth from a year ago.

However, the bigger question is not Q2 but whether Tesla can return to sustainable annual growth.

Consensus forecasts point to roughly 1.65 million deliveries for 2026, barely above the 1.64 million delivered in 2025. That suggests investors expect another year of broadly flat volumes despite Tesla narrowly regaining the global EV sales lead from BYD.

The focus will therefore be on management's confidence in demand during the second half of the year rather than the delivery number itself.

Tesla's energy storage business also remains an increasingly important part of the investment case and could offset slower vehicle growth over time.

How to trade Tesla deliveries

Tesla continues to trade within a symmetrical triangle.

The price has fallen back below both the 50 and 200-day SMAs after failing at trendline resistance.

A break below $370 would expose $339, the 2026 low.

To improve the technical outlook, buyers would need to reclaim the 50-day SMA at $404 and the 200-day SMA at $415 before targeting trendline resistance near $436. A move above $450 would confirm a bullish breakout.

Constellation Brands Q1 Results

Constellation Brands reports Q1 FY2027 earnings after Tuesday's close.

Expectations are for EPS of $3.28 on revenue of $2.42 billion.

The focus will remain on whether beer demand continues to stabilise following softer consumer spending earlier this year.

Modelo, Corona and Pacifico remain the key earnings drivers, while investors will also watch pricing, margins and cost controls to assess whether the company can offset weaker volumes.

Following April's results, management struck a cautious tone despite improving sentiment. Investors will be looking for confirmation that the business is moving from stabilisation towards growth.

Commentary on U.S. consumer demand, tariffs and input costs could also shape expectations for the remainder of the fiscal year.

How to trade STZ earnings

Constellation Brands remains below its falling trendline and both the 50 and 200-day SMAs.

The share price recovered from the 2025 low before failing at resistance around $167 and slipping back below the 50-day SMA.

A break below $134 would expose the 2025 low near $125.

Buyers need to reclaim the 50-day SMA near $148 before targeting trendline resistance around $155. A move above $167 would create a higher high and open the way towards $190.