Indices Weekly Outlook

Global indices managed to bounce back towards the end of the week as risk mood improved following Thursday’s drop in bond yields and a slight decline in oil prices. But by late Friday afternoon, oil prices had made back most of Thursday’s drop and the bond markets remained under some pressure as European bourses closed for trading.

The response to the rate hike was a strong Thursday outing but ever since Kevin Warsh took over atop the Fed there’s been a shift in equity markets.

A hawkish Fed and 10-Year Notes on the verge of a push above 5%, yet stocks have so far shrugged off that fear. But can it continue?

The S&P 500 fell on Friday to post a flat close on the week. Rising yields and elevated oil prices reminded investors that the macro backdrop is turning challenging. Friday’s US jobs report raised the pressure on the Fed to hike as the report was considerably stronger than expected. All the attention will be on inflation data in this shortened week for US investors, plus the usual suspects of oil and bond yields, ahead of the FOMC rate decision in the following week.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow test key technical levels as momentum fades, raising the risk of a deeper correction heading into a pivotal week.

Is it a bubble or just a mania? While AI holds a lot of promise the valuations are becoming untethered from historical norms but that doesn’t necessarily mean that prices need to come down.

While some degree of skepticism remains around the ceasefire announcement into the weekend equity markets seem far more certain, as stocks have rallied in a big way despite oil prices staying elevated.