Weekly Equities Outlook: Oracle, Adobe, Macy’s

Oracle earnings preview

The software and cloud provider will report earnings on Thursday, September 10, after the market closes. Expectations are for fiscal Q1 EPS to rise to $1.74, an 18.5% year-on-year increase, with revenue forecast to rise 28.3% to $19.1 billion. Capital expenditure is expected to more than double to $19.3 billion, up from $18.5 billion just a year earlier.

Looking ahead, Q2 earnings are expected to fall 16% to $1.90. Revenue is forecast to rise 32% to $21.2 billion, while capital expenditure is expected to increase 85% to $22.3 billion.

A key focus will be Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. The market will want to see evidence that the impressive growth rate is sustainable. While growth of 60% to 70%+ in key cloud infrastructure metrics will likely be viewed positively, any slowdown could raise concerns.

Remaining performance obligations, or RPO, will be another area of interest. Oracle had $638 billion of RPO, driven by huge AI and cloud contracts, and investors will want to know whether this enormous backlog is actually converting into revenue. A large RPO would reinforce the AI thesis. Any signs of a slowdown could see investors questioning whether huge AI contracts are translating into economic growth quickly enough.

Another key focus will be AI capex and free cash flow. Despite generating $32 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2026, Oracle had negative $23.7 billion of free cash flow owing to enormous data centre investment. The market isn't asking if Oracle's AI business is growing, but how much cash Oracle has to spend to generate that growth.

Oracle has already been heavily impacted by concerns over capex, debt and negative FCF, with the share price some 20% lower this year and still around 60% below its record high last September.

How to trade ORCL earnings

The share price trades below its falling trend line dating back to September last year and below the 200 EMA, keeping the longer-term outlook bearish.

However, in the near term, the price has recovered from the 2026 low of 114, pushing above the 50 EMA. Combined with the RSI above 50, this is keeping buyers hopeful of a more constructive near-term outlook.

Buyers would need to retake the 200 EMA at 170 in order to turn attention to the falling trend line resistance at 214. A rise above 247, the 2026 high, would turn the chart more bullish.

On the downside, immediate support is at the 50 EMA, with a break below here and 140, the September low, turning attention towards 115, the 2026 low. A break below here would extend the bearish decline.

Adobe earnings preview

Adobe is due to release earnings on September 10 after the market close. Expectations are for EPS of $6.09 on revenue of $6.7 billion, versus $5.99 and $5.31 billion a year ago.

The key focus will be AI monetization, as Adobe's Creative freemium monthly active users surpassed 90 million in Q2, up more than 70%. While Firefly ARR approached $300 million, Acrobat and Express MAUs exceeded 850 million, rising 20%.

A stronger conversion of Adobe's rapidly expanding free AI audience into paying customers is what the market would need to see. However, any weakness in Creative seats could reinforce concerns that AI usage growth is not translating quickly enough into recurring revenue.

How to trade ADBE earnings

The share price has been trending lower since January 2024, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows before running into support at 191 in June this year. From here, the price has recovered higher, testing the 50 EMA resistance and the upper band of the falling channel.

Buyers will need to rise above 294, the August high, to bring 330 into focus. Horizontal resistance and the 100 EMA rising above here expose the 200 EMA at 375. Above here, the outlook turns more constructive.

On the downside, immediate support can be seen around 223, the March low, with a break below here turning attention to 190, the 2026 low. Sellers will need to take out this level to create a lower low and extend the bearish move.

Macy’s earnings preview

Macy's Q2 earnings are due before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, September 10.

Expectations are for EPS of $0.37 a share, pointing to a 9.8% year-on-year decline, on revenue of $4.82 billion, marking a 0.2% increase compared with the same quarter a year ago.

While Q1 earnings were encouraging, with Macy's reporting $4.68 billion in revenue ahead of the $4.61 billion consensus, while EPS of $0.13 was well ahead of estimates of $0.02, comparable sales and margins could be a more important driver than whether earnings beat by two or three cents.

The data will also provide an insight into whether the U.S. consumer is still willing to spend on discretionary goods. U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the first decline in nine months, whilst core sales also fell 0.4%, suggesting some cooling in consumer demand going into Macy's Q2 reporting period.

With petrol prices significantly higher than where they were a year ago and inflation sticky, consumers have less disposable income for discretionary purchases such as clothing, furniture and department store merchandise. However, Macy's could be able to benefit from customers trading down from more expensive retailers.

While inflation is sticky, the latest nonfarm payroll report suggested that the jobs market remains resilient, and a consumer with a job and rising wages can continue to spend even if prices are high.

Finally, tariffs will be another area of interest. Macy's said in Q1 that tariffs reduced EPS by approximately 4 cents, and it expects tariffs and fuel costs to reduce Q2 EPS by a further 3 to 4 cents, with a 20-40 bps drop in gross margins.

How to trade M earnings

The share price trades above its rising trend line and its 200 EMA. The price has formed a series of higher highs, running into resistance at 2,659 before easing back to find support at 2,175. From here, the price has recovered but continues to trade below the 50 EMA at 2,023.20.

Buyers will need to rise above this level in order to bring 2,650 and fresh record highs back into focus.

On the downside, failure to retake the 50 EMA could see attention turn back to 1,165, the August low, and the 200 EMA right below here could see sellers gain traction towards 1,780, the May low, and 1,670, the 2026 low.