AUD/USD forecast tilted to upside as focus turns to key data
The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025. The Aussie has benefitted from rising metals prices and a strong Chinese yuan. The US dollar meanwhile has had bouts of strength here and there, but not much against the Aussie. The recent bond market stress has further increased the US dollar debasement calls. The focus now is turning to key data from both Australia and the US, and the Jackson Hole symposium.
Written by
Fawad Razaqzada
Market Analyst
The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025. The Aussie has benefitted from rising metals prices and a strong Chinese yuan. The US dollar meanwhile has had bouts of strength here and there, but not much against the Aussie. The recent bond market stress has further increased the US dollar debasement calls. The focus now is turning to key data from both Australia and the US, and the Jackson Hole symposium. Ahead of these events, the AUD/USD forecast remains tilted to the upside.
Key data coming up from both sides of the pacific
We have Australian inflation data coming up in the early hours of Wednesday. CPI is expected to have moderated to 3.3% year over year in August, down from 3.8% the month before. Month-over-month, CPI is expected to print +0.9%. Trimmed Mean CPI is seen at +0.4% m/m/ vs. +0.3% last month.
The focus will then turn to US data with the release of Core PCE index and preliminary estimate of GDP (i.e., the second estimate). PCE is seen printing +0.2% m/m vs. +0.1% m/m in July, while annualised GDP is expected to be unchanged from the Advance estimate of 1.5% q/q. Wednesday will also see the release of US durable goods orders, personal income and spending and a couple of Fed speakers.
Technical AUD/USD forecast and levels to watch
Now, the AUD/USD finds itself above both its long-term 200-day simple average and short-term 21-day exponential. This is as objective as one can be in calling this a bullish trend. With that in mind, it makes sense for traders to continue buying the dips, rather than selling the rips.
With the pair holding around the Feb 2023 highs near 0.7158, having previously broken through this zone back in May this year, another bullish attempt to new 2026 highs seem increasingly likely.
I wouldn't rule out a move to 0.75 handle in the coming weeks.
The AUD/USD forecast will only turn bearish if we now see the break of the 1.5-year trend line that has been established since April 2025.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
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