Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Coils Below Yearly Downtrend 9 7 2025
USD/CAD is testing the 2025 downtrend with the September opening-range taking shape just below- breakout imminent. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
Written by
Michael Boutros
Sr. Technical Strategist
Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/CAD rebounds off key support into September open- five-day rally stalls at resistance
- USD/CAD monthly opening-range breakout to offer guidance- Core PPI / CPI data on tap
- Resistance 1.3835 (key), 1.3915, 1.3977-1.4018– Support 1.3733 (key), 1.3687, 1.3583
USD/CAD has rallied into the yearly downtrend, with price now testing a major technical barrier as the September range takes shape just below. This level represents a key inflection point for the June rally and the bulls may be vulnerable near-term while below this slope. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “struggling at a major technical hurdle here and a close above this key pivot zone is needed to validate the breakout of the yearly downtrend. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3733 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 1.3835 needed to fuel the next leg of the June advance.” USD/CAD plunged more than 1.4% off the monthly highs in the following days before rebounding off support this week at the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3733 (intraday low registered at 1.3727).
USD/CAD has now rallied more than 0.6% with a five-day advance exhausting into confluent resistance again on Friday at the 61.8% retracement of the May decline / 23.6% retracement of the yearly range 1.3835. Note that a sliding parallel of the yearly downtrend (red) converges on this threshold and further highlights the technical significance of this zone over the next few weeks.
A topside breach / close above this threshold exposes the 78.6% retracement at 1.3915 and key resistance at 1.3977-1.4019- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high, and the 38.2% retracement. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a topside breach / close above needed to suggest the yearly low is in / a larger trend reversal is underway.
A break / close below this range would shift the focus towards key support at the 61.8% retracement of the June advance at 1.3687- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and a break below would threaten resumption of the broader yearly downtrend. Subsequent support objectives eyed at the yearly close low at 1.3583 and 1.3504/23- a region define by the 1.618% extension of the February decline and the 78.6% retracement of the late-2023 advance (look for a larger reaction here IF reached).
Bottom line: USD/CAD is carving the September opening-range just below confluent resistance – look for a breakout in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the yearly low-week close IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3835 needed to validate a breakout of the yearly downtrend.
Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation figures next week with the Core PPI & CPI data on tap Wednesday & Thursday respectively. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.
US/ Canada Economic Data Release
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Open an account today
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.
Economic calendar
Related articles
USD/JPY weekly outlook: Payrolls may challenge the Fed’s hawkish reset
USD/JPY has finally woken from its slumber. Payrolls now loom as the key test of whether the latest hawkish repricing sticks or sinks.
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support 8 28 2026
Warsh's comments accelerated the EUR/USD selloff, raising the stakes as buyers look to stabilize the broader recovery.
Gold and S&P 500 analysis: What now after Warsh’s hawkish speech?
The dollar surged across the board after the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with a hawkish-leaning speech at the Jackson Hole summit. All the bearish dollar bets that had been accumulated since last Friday on the back of data weakness and bond market troubles had to be squared and that triggered a short squeeze rally for the dollar. Gold and silver dropped, as a result, as too did bitcoin, while US indices were giving back earlier gains.
