Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Breakout Looms 8 27 2025
Gold is coiling within a multi-month range just beneath resistance. XAU/USD is poised for a September breakout. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
Written by
Michael Boutros
Sr. Technical Strategist
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Gold coils within multi-month consolidation pattern, just below resistance
- XAU/USD poised for September breakout- Core PCE on tap
- Resistance 3432/35, 3500 (key), 3590s– Support 3247, 3121/32 (key), 3000
Gold has spent months consolidating below a critical resistance threshold, and pressure is building into September. A breakout looms, with bulls eyeing another test of the record high if price clears the ceiling. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD, “was rejected at resistance again this week and the monthly opening-range reversal keeps the focus on a test of the yearly uptrend- watch today’s close with respect to the median-line.” Gold tested the median-line numerous times this month with price unable to mark a weekly close below the February trendline (red). The focus remains on a breakout of this multi-month consolidation pattern just below technical resistance at the objective May high / weekly high-close at 3432/35.
Initial support rests along the February trendline (currently ~3350) and is backed by the 61.8% retracement of the May advance at 3247. Bullish invalidation remains with the May swing low / 38.2% retracement of the November advance at 3121/32 – note that the lower parallel of a multi-year pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a lager trend reversal is underway.
A topside breach / close above this resistance pivot exposes the record high at 3500- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the upper parallels, currently near ~3590s and ~3750s.
Bottom line: Gold is attempting to breakout of a multi-month consolidation pattern, just below resistance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the February trendline IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 3432 needed to fuel a test of the record high.
Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data this week with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Open an account today
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution.
Economic calendar
Related articles
USD/JPY weekly outlook: Payrolls may challenge the Fed’s hawkish reset
USD/JPY has finally woken from its slumber. Payrolls now loom as the key test of whether the latest hawkish repricing sticks or sinks.
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Pullback Nears Pivotal Uptrend Support 8 28 2026
Warsh's comments accelerated the EUR/USD selloff, raising the stakes as buyers look to stabilize the broader recovery.
Gold and S&P 500 analysis: What now after Warsh’s hawkish speech?
The dollar surged across the board after the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised with a hawkish-leaning speech at the Jackson Hole summit. All the bearish dollar bets that had been accumulated since last Friday on the back of data weakness and bond market troubles had to be squared and that triggered a short squeeze rally for the dollar. Gold and silver dropped, as a result, as too did bitcoin, while US indices were giving back earlier gains.
