Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Elections Test Brent–WTI Resistance Levels

The Brent–WTI spread is slowing near an 11-year resistance zone at $13.50, while monthly RSI has reached overbought territory last seen in 2011. Is the spread nearing a turning point, or could renewed geopolitical tensions drive another leg higher?

Brent is facing its 2026 highs above $110, while WTI is testing Septmber highs near $105 and is approaching a resistance zone that dates back to 2011 and its own yearly highs. These levels set up two possible scenarios: a reversal from resistance or a sustained breakout that extends the longer-term bullish trend. Geopolitical developments around the Israeli election on October 27 and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 could influence the outlook in the coming weeks and months.

This week brings several potential volatility catalysts: the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, October 28; the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday, October 29; and the Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday, October 30. Mega-cap earnings and geopolitical developments—including Houthi activity, Strait of Hormuz risks, and attacks on oil tankers—are also in focus. Israel’s election is scheduled for October 27, with U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

With oil prices near the upper end of this year’s range, softer demand expectations may temper the rally. At the same time, the risk of supply disruptions remains central to the crude oil outlook, with potential consequences for inflation, central bank policy and corporate earnings.

Brent–WTI Spread: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Pullback risks are on my radar as the Brent–WTI spread tests an 11-year resistance zone near $13.50, a level that has capped the spread since 2015. Monthly RSI is also testing overbought territory last seen in 2011.

Extreme fear in market sentiment, together with the approaching elections and their connection to the Middle East conflict, may contribute to a turning point. Stretched bond yields and elevated momentum readings across markets add to the risk of a reversal.

Brent Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

On the weekly chart, Brent is facing a technical confluence zone between $110 and $118, where a pullback could emerge. The zone aligns with a trendline respected since March 2026 and the 78.6% extension of the April 2025–March 2026–July 2026 price cycle.

On the downside, I’m watching the rising support connecting higher lows since July 2026, with key levels near $108 and $101. A break below these levels would strengthen the bearish reversal case.

WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

On the weekly WTI chart, price is holding below the September high and the $105 resistance level. This level aligns with the 61.8% extension of the April 2025–March 2026–July 2026 price cycle.

A breakout above $105 would bring the yearly highs and the trendline respected since March 2026 into focus, with potential resistance near $114. A sustained break higher would increase the risk of longer-term bullish continuation.

On the downside, I’m watching rising support connecting higher lows since July 2026, near $93.30 and $89. A break below these levels could expose $85 and then $81.

Despite the many catalysts this week, geopolitical developments, supply disruptions and the approaching elections are likely to remain key drivers of crude oil and market volatility and direction.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves