Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Five-Week Range Puts Yearly Lows on the Line

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• EUR/USD EUR/USD remains confined to a narrow trading range near yearly lows, with weekly momentum continuing to favor the bears.
• A decisive break below critical support would signal resumption of the broader downtrend and expose deeper correction to fresh yearly lows.
• Bulls need to reclaim resistance at the monthly high to strengthen the case for a more significant low and sustained recovery.
• Next week's U.S. CPI and PPI reports could provide the catalyst for a decisive range break as Fed rate expectations remain in focus.
• Resistance 1.1276, 1.1355/65 (key), 1.1480- Support 1.1110/30 (key), 1.1032, 1.0905

The Euro enters mid-November at a critical technical crossroads as EUR/USD struggles to establish a sustained recovery from the recent decline. Sellers have been unable to force a decisive breakdown, but repeated attempts to rally have also failed to overcome overhead resistance, leaving the broader bearish structure intact. The latest rebound stalled near resistance and now defines the November opening-range high, further highlighting the significance of the current consolidation. With the technical battle lines clearly defined, the next sustained break could prove decisive in determining whether a more meaningful low is developing or the broader yearly decline is poised to resume.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was testing a critical support zone and, “the decline may be vulnerable while above this level. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1355/65 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1110 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro has been trading in a well-defined range just above key support for the past five weeks and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the focus is on a breakout for guidance heading into mid-November.

Critical support rests at 1.1110/30- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance, the October lows, and the 50% retracement of the 2025 advance. Weekly RSI remains at the lowest levels of the year, and the momentum profile remains in favor the bears for now.   

Initial resistance was tested into the start of the month at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 and now defines the November opening range high. Bearish invalidation remains at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April 2025 high week close (HWC) at 1.1355/65. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger reversal in underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the median line of the yearly downtrend (currently near ~1.1440s) and the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 1.1480.

A break / weekly close below this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg of the decline towards the lower parallel of the yearly pitchfork which converges on the 2020 low-month close (LMC) at 1.1032. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- losses below this threshold would shift the focus towards key Fibonacci support at the 61.8% retracement at 1.0905.

Bottom Line: EUR/USD has been trading within a well-defined range just above pivotal support at the yearly low for the past five weeks. Look for a breakout of this range for guidance in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1276 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1110 needed to fuel the next leg of the yearly downtrend.

EUR/USD event risk next week remains heavily U.S.-focused, with October CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday the main catalysts. Friday’s stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report reinforced expectations for another Fed hike in December, leaving the dollar sensitive to any further evidence of persistent price pressures. A full slate of Fed speakers could add to the volatility, while euro-area risk is lighter and centered on ECB commentary and the Economic Bulletin. A firm U.S. inflation sequence would strengthen the dollar’s policy advantage, while softer readings could ease rate pressure and help stabilize EUR/USD. Stay nimble into the releases watch the weekly close for directional guide. Review my latest Technical Outlook Video as well as my Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex