News and Analysis

A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.

With tech stocks getting hit harder last week there was collateral damage elsewhere, including gold as the metal closed below the $4k level for the week and that’s the first time that’s happened to spot gold in more than a year.

With just one week left in October, the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle to regain consistent demand. Although there was an attempt to recover earlier in the week, the move failed to gain traction and the market quickly returned to a more cautious tone, even as some competing markets began to lose part of their appeal.

Big tech earnings ramp up, with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft updating the market as worries over heavy AI spending weigh on sentiment. UK banks are also in focus ahead of the Budget, with earnings from Lloyds, NatWest, Standard Chartered, and HSBC.

AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.

As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments in the FX market has been the renewed strength of the Japanese yen. This can be seen in the recent performance of USD/JPY, which has fallen nearly 1.0% over the last two trading sessions, highlighting a meaningful recovery in the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar is working on its second consecutive red week and while sellers didn’t exactly pounce on fresh lows, there’s an opening door for bears to make a move.

Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.

A sharp reversal off key support has fueled the AUD/USD recovery, with resistance now in focus ahead of next week’s Fed decision and Australian CPI.

Brent crude oil is accelerating above $110 as traders price in the risk of a US-Israeli strike on Iran over the weekend. How much more of a geopolitical premium can oil build in before the close?

U.S. stocks are pointing to a modestly lower open after a sharp AI sell-off yesterday, as telecom stocks slide. Brent rises towards $115 adding to inflation pressures ahead of the FOMC rate decision.

And just like that, it is Friday again and the end of a volatile week. Today offers little on the macro calendar to change the prevailing narrative, leaving markets largely at the mercy of risk appetite, oil prices and the growing unease around the AI trade.