Nasdaq 100 Forecast: NDX recovers Fed loss on optimism on Iran deal, Intel jumps

US futures                                          

Dow futures 0.6%, S&P futures 0.79%  & Nasdaq futures 1.4%

In Europe                                                                        

FTSE -1.1% & DAX -0.04%

• U.S stocks rise as US & Iran sign a MoU
• The Fed left rates unchanged, but the tone was more hawkish
• Intel jumps 9% on Apple chip business
• Oil falls to $75 on hopes of the Strait reopening imminently

U.S. Stocks Rise as Middle East Peace Deal Offsets Hawkish Fed Concerns

U.S. stocks are moving higher, recovering from yesterday's sell-off as the signing of an interim Middle East peace deal offsets some of the jitters surrounding the Federal Reserve's more hawkish tone.

The U.S. and Iran have released the text of an agreement extending a ceasefire announced in April by a further 60 days to allow both sides to negotiate a permanent settlement. The agreement also includes the full resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The news sent oil prices more than 2% lower, pushing crude back to levels last seen in early March and helping to ease inflation concerns.

However, the rebound in equities comes after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, but removed its easing bias.

Furthermore, the dot plot showed that nine of the 18 policymakers expect a rate hike this year. Combined with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's strong commitment to price stability and the 2% inflation target, markets interpreted the meeting as distinctly hawkish. Investors are now pricing in a Fed rate hike as soon as October.

Warsh has also moved quickly to stamp his leadership style on the central bank, shortening the policy statement, offering less forward guidance and launching several policy review task forces.

As a result, Treasury yields have moved higher and the U.S. dollar has risen to a fresh 2026 high.

Corporate Movers

Intel has jumped almost 9% after President Trump said the company had reached an agreement with Apple to design and manufacture chips in the United States.

The move has helped lift the broader semiconductor sector. Marvell Technology is up 7%, while Lam Research and Applied Materials are both gaining around 5%.

Memory chip stocks are also higher, with Micron Technology and SanDisk rising around 4%.

SpaceX is modestly lower, falling 1% after a 5% decline on Wednesday. The stock remains well above its IPO price following last week's historic debut.

Nasdaq Forecast – Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq remains in a bullish trend, trading above its rising trendline and the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

The index recovered from the June low around 28,200 near the 50-day SMA and rallied to 30,650 before pulling back towards support at 29,650.

Buyers will look for a move back above 30,650 and 30,700 to bring fresh record highs into focus. Beyond that, 31,000 and 32,000 become the next upside targets.

On the downside, immediate support sits at 29,650, the May 15 swing high. A break below this level would expose the 50-day SMA near 28,500 and the June low at 28,200. A move below there would create a lower low and open the door towards 26,250 and the 200-day SMA around 25,800.

FX Markets – USD Firms After Hawkish Fed

The U.S. dollar has risen to a fresh 2026 high following the hawkish shift at yesterday's FOMC meeting. Markets are now pricing in a Fed rate hike as soon as October, supporting Treasury yields and the dollar.

EUR/USD is under pressure, falling towards a fresh 10-week low near 1.1450 as dollar strength outweighs expectations for further ECB tightening. While markets continue to price in another ECB rate increase before year-end, the U.S. economic outlook remains stronger than that of the eurozone.

GBP/USD has fallen below 1.3250 after the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75% and cut its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.25% from 3.6%. As a result, markets have scaled back expectations for further BoE tightening and now price just 32 basis points of hikes this year, with the first full hike not priced in until November.

Oil Continues to Fall as U.S. and Iran Sign Agreement

Oil prices have fallen more than 1%, dropping to their lowest levels since the start of the Iran conflict as investors price in a normalisation of Middle East supply conditions.

WTI has slipped to around $75 per barrel, while Brent trades near $78, its lowest level since early March.

Markets are increasingly pricing a quicker-than-expected return of Iranian oil exports following the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. The agreement calls for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to full capacity within 30 days.

The focus will now shift from diplomacy to implementation and whether supply flows recover as quickly as markets currently expect.