Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Emerge at Support

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

• USD/CHF sell-off rebounds off technical support- poised to mark outside-day reversal
• USD/CHF risk for exhaustion / price inflection into downtrend resistance- NFPs on tap
• Resistance 8264/79, 8333/54 (key), 8416/30 - Support 8316/33, 8264 (key), 8207

The US Dollar is poised to rally 0.8% against the Swiss Franc today with USD/CHF rebounding off technical support. The reversal is now approaching the first major hurdle at downtrend resistance the focus is on the weekly / monthly opening-range as we head into NFPs on Friday. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

 

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had, “responded to near-term uptrend resistance on Monday with the weekly opening-range preserved just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the monthly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch..” Price broke lower the following week with the decline extending nearly 3.8% off the May high before rebounding off support today at the 61.8% extension near 8170. USD/CHF is now poised to mark an outside-day reversal off the lows and the focus is on this near-term recovery.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

 

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the May high. A rebound off the 25% parallel on Monday is now approaching resistance at the May open / 38.2% retracement at 8264/79- look for a reaction there IF reached. Ultimately a breach / close above the 2023 low / 61.8% retracement at 8333/54 is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger reversal is underway.  Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 2024 open / low-day close (LDC) near 8416/30 and the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 8484.

A break of the weekly opening-range lows would threaten resumption of the monthly downtrend towards the yearly low-day close / 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8092-8103 and the 100% extension at 8060- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rebounded off near-term technical support with price now approaching confluent downtrend resistance. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8280 needed to fuel the next leg.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the June opening-range with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex