Silver forecast: Technical Tuesday | January 13, 2026

We are barely two weeks into the new year, and silver is already up 20% year-to-date. Momentum has evidently remained strong after the metal skyrocketed in the second half of last year, closing 2025 with a gain of nearly 150% to mark its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s. The follow-up gains in these initial days of 2026 makes any silver forecast both intriguing and slightly uncomfortable. Moves of this scale tend to leave the market stretched. The grey metal broke another milestone in reaching north of $85 on Monday, thus creating a new all-time high, before eventually stalling around $86. But with the dollar making a bit of a comeback and the potential for supply to catch up, I am on the look out for signs of a correction to emerge soon. For now, though, dip-buying continues to rule.

 

Silver forecast: Keep an eye on supply as risk of correction grows

 

While silver has been supported by many other factors including haven demand and interest rate cuts, the main factor behind the eye-watering gains has been due to short-term tightness in supply. For that reason, it is difficult to say how much further will silver rise and how long it will be able to sustain itself at current record levels. Supply remains the market’s biggest constraint. Most silver is produced as a by-product of other metals, which means output can’t be ramped up quickly when prices surge. Declining ore grades, environmental restrictions and a lack of major new projects in key producing regions have kept supply tight for years. Global demand has now exceeded mine supply for five consecutive years.

 

However, according to HSBC, the tightness in deliverable supply should ease later in the year, with the bank forecasts suggesting the metal is fundamentally overvalued. Once the dust settles, HSBC expects its average silver price in 2026 to be around $68.25 per ounce, falling to $57.00 in 2027.

 

So, looking ahead, the macro picture should become more balanced as tightness in supplies is eased. On the demand, higher prices should curb consumption with jewellery demand likely to be particularly weak. Meanwhile, much of the easing cycle is already priced in. After such a vertical move, the risk of a meaningful correction is growing.

 

Silver technical analysis

 

 

From a technical standpoint, the trend remains strong and there are no obvious signs of a reversal yet on the silver price chart. Obviously momentum indicators are stretched across multiple timeframes, but that is merely a reflection of strong buying momentum. Key levels to watch on any pullback sit around $80.00, but also keep an eye on last year’s high at just below the $84.00 level. The line in the sand is now at $73.85, marking the most recent low prior to this week’s breakout rally. Below that? Bearish. In that case, $70 and $60, or even lower levels could become in focus if sentiment turns more decisively. On the upside, there are no historical reference points, meaning price action will need to lead the way. Keep an eye on round figures such as $90.00, $95.00 etc., should the rally continue.

 

In short, silver has started 2026 bright, but repeating 2025’s explosive gains could be difficult to achieve without fresh catalysts. For now, this silver forecast favours patience — and that means potentially buying meaningful dips rather than chasing prices higher.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R