Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Selloff Nears Critical Support Ahead of NFP

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

• USD/CHF remains under pressure following the reversal from the yearly high, with price action holding within a near-term downtrend.
• The break below a key pivot zone takes price into the lower bounds of the yearly uptrend- inflection risk rises.
• A decisive daily close below the next major support confluence would confirm renewed downside pressure and expose a deeper correction.
• Bulls need to reclaim broken resistance to stabilize the recovery, with a breach of the October downtrend required to suggest a more significant low is in place.
• SNB commentary and Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report headline event risk as markets reassess December Fed expectations.
• Resistance 8200/15 (key), 8250, 8278/93- Support 8120/25 (key), 8041/43, 8009

The Swiss Franc has strengthened considerably as the U.S. Dollar continues to surrender ground following last month's reversal from yearly highs. The near-term technical structure remains bearish, although the latest decline is approaching a major inflection zone where selling pressure could begin to ease. Stronger-than-expected Swiss inflation has added to the pressure on USD/CHF, with attention now shifting to Friday's U.S. employment report. The NFP release could prove particularly influential for December Fed rate expectations, with the reaction in Treasury yields likely to drive renewed volatility into the weekly close. Battlelines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had, “broken a multi-week uptrend after reversing off key resistance into the start of the month. The risk remains for a deeper correction within the confines of the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 8358 IF price is heading lower on this stretch..” USD/CHF briefly registered an intraday high at 8395 five days later but could not sustain the move with the subsequent reversal extending nearly 3.2% off the yearly high. The decline is testing the lower bounds of the August pitchfork today and the bulls will need to defend this slope for the broader uptrend to remain viable. The immediate focus is on possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead with key event risk on tap into the close of the week.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the October high. Pivotal support now converges on the 25% parallel at 8120/25- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the August rally, the June high-day close, and the 2025 August high-close & November high. A break / daily close below this threshold would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline with subsequent support objectives seen at the March & January highs at 8041/43 and the April high-day close (HDC) / July low at 8009. Both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Initial resistance is eyed back at 8200/15- a region defined by the 100% extension of the January advance, the July high, the October close low, and the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline. This has been a pivotal zone for USD/CHF all year. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the monthly open at 8250    and the October 28 reversal close / 61.8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high at 8278/93. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone into the start of next week and a breach / daily close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is trading just above a major support zone and while the near-term outlook remains tilted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above this threshold. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 8214 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 8120 needed to mark resumption of the October downtrend.

With the U.S. midterm elections now behind us, USD/CHF event risk into the close of the week is concentrated on the U.S. side after stronger-than-expected Swiss inflation helped support the franc. Swiss CPI rose 1.5% year over year in October, topping estimates for a 1.3% print. Attention now turns to SNB Chairman Schlegel’s remarks Thursday, followed by Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports. The labor data will likely carry greater weight for the pair, and a stronger employment report could help the dollar stabilize. With markets pricing roughly an 80% chance of a Fed hike in December, a softer jobs report could leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further downside as expectations for the December decision are reassessed. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex