Swissy Attracts Safe-Haven Bets, AUD Shorts Surge to Record High| COT report

Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc has seen speculative gross longs surge, despite traders remaining firmly net short overall. Meanwhile, large speculators have pushed Australian dollar gross shorts to a record high, leaving AUD/USD vulnerable to a short squeeze. US dollar bulls also remain in control, adding another $10.1 billion to net-long exposure as the dollar index tests trend resistance following a four-week rally.

Swiss Franc Demand Rises as Australian Dollar Bears Double Down

Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

• US Dollar: Futures traders added $10.1 billion to their net-long exposure last week, taking the total to $34.3 billion.
• EUR/USD: Large speculators were at their most bearish on euro futures since February 2020, with net shorts of 99.3k contracts.
• GBP/USD: Asset managers and large speculators increased their combined net-short exposure for a third week to 243k contracts.
• USD/JPY: Minor adjustments to yen positioning saw asset managers increase their net shorts to a 10-month high of 67.8k contracts.
• USD/CHF: Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc saw gross longs among large speculators surge to a 3.5-year high of 27.8k contracts.
• USD/CAD: Large speculators aggressively increased Canadian dollar gross longs, although the remain net short by 90.2k contracts.
• AUD/USD: Large speculators increased their net-short exposure to Australian dollar futures to a 14-month high of 98.6k contracts.

Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

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FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)

US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report

The dollar rallied for a fourth week to reach its highest level since April 2025, although bullish momentum is waning. It rose 0.28% over the week, with a high-to-low range of 0.76%, while trend resistance appears to be doing its job for now.

Futures traders increased their net longs for a fourth week to $34.3 billion, adding $10.1 billion from the prior week. Asset managers marginally increased their net longs and remain so by around 12k contracts. Large speculators increased their bullish exposure to 19.1k contracts, taking the combined net-long position between the two groups to around 31k contracts.

Traders now need to decide how much rising crude oil prices could influence the Fed’s inflation outlook, particularly with consumer sentiment sitting near a record low. Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Friday, while US CPI and retail sales will also be released this week to help fine-tune policy expectations and the dollar’s direction.

Source: CFTC (COT), ICE, LSEG

USD/CHF (Swiss franc) Futures Positioning | COT Report

Swiss franc positioning has become increasingly conflicted. Gross longs among both asset managers and large speculators have surged as geopolitical risk and European fiscal concerns revive demand for the franc as a safe haven. Yet gross shorts also remain elevated, reflecting the SNB’s neutral policy outlook and limited expectations for higher rates. The result is a reduction in net-short exposure rather than a wholesale shift to bullish positioning.

Gross longs among large speculators have risen to 27.8k, while asset managers have increased theirs to a 14-month high of 19.5k, for a combined 47.3k. But gross shorts remain much larger at 56.9k and 51.6k respectively. That leaves both groups firmly net short, although the recent surge in longs shows bearish positioning is becoming less one-sided.

Safe-haven demand is yet to overpower the broader downtrend in the Swiss franc, but a pickup in inflation that lifts SNB tightening expectations could help revive the longer-term bullish trend in CHF - bearish for USD/CHF.

The franc also has the US dollar side of the equation to contend with. The dollar is yet to show any meaningful signs of rolling over, so despite the surge in CHF longs, USD/CHF bears may need to remain patient for now.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report

Large speculators have been vindicated for aggressively shorting the Australian dollar throughout July and August, despite prices rising at the time. And they have continued to embrace the bearish move, pushing gross-short exposure to a record high.

With AUD/USD futures falling for four consecutive weeks, rising shorts alongside falling longs have pushed net-short exposure to a two-year high of 98.6k contracts.

However, positioning may be approaching a sentiment extreme, leaving bears vulnerable to a short squeeze should the US dollar retreat or risk appetite improve. While the broader bearish trend remains intact, such crowded positioning suggests traders should be cautious about chasing AUD/USD lower at current levels.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG

EUR, GBP, JPY and CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report

Large speculators remain heavily net short EUR, GBP and CAD futures, with euro shorts reaching fresh multi-year highs. Meanwhile, Japanese yen positioning stands out, with net longs rising sharply as traders cut short exposure. Canadian dollar gross longs have also surged, although historically elevated short positions continue to outweigh them. The broader picture points to persistent bearish positioning across several major currencies, despite signs of renewed demand for the yen and Canadian dollar.

Source: CFTC (COT), CME, LSEG