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It has not been an easy week for the Japanese yen. Over the last four trading sessions, USD/JPY has posted a move of only around 0.3%, reflecting a market that continues to lack clear direction and remains trapped in a phase of neutrality.
PCE may still matter to policymakers at the Fed, but for traders looking for a genuine volatility event, CPI has been the far more reliable release.
Despite the selling pressure that has dominated USD/MXN price action in recent weeks, a period during which the pair has declined roughly 0.6% over the last four trading sessions, today's session has been marked by a modest recovery in favor of the U.S. dollar.
Over the last 3 trading sessions, the Canadian dollar has shown signs of strength, reflected in a USD/CAD decline of nearly -0.43%, marking a short-term bearish bias. This pressure has held steady following the release of Canada's inflation data and amid expectations of progress in tariff negotiations, keeping the Canadian currency from losing ground.
Canada’s July CPI rose 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June, though median CPI was more moderate at 2.0% ahead of Wednesday deadline for 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian exports to the US - what are the implications for USD/CAD?
The EUR/USD was struggling to find a clear direction. Hardly a surprise, truth be told, ahead of such an important data release. Investors are weighing a renewed surge in crude oil prices in recent days against the prospect of another important US inflation reading. While market volatility remains subdued, the combination of higher energy prices and elevated bond yields is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Traders are lacking clarity on what the FOMC will do next month, with markets pricing in 50/50 odds of a rate hike ahead of the CPI report - how will it impact the US dollar?
A week after a similarly below-expectation report from the US, Canadian inflation cooled more sharply than expected in June, easing concerns that the recent energy-driven increase was spreading across the broader economy. USD/CAD is in focus.
USD/JPY & Silver Outlook: USD/JPY and silver outlook as US dollar strength persists despite softer US CPI. Key support, resistance, and breakout levels amid Middle East tensions.
While hawkish hopes are perhaps too elevated, a surprising CPI report could still drive abnormal volatility in major markets given uncertainty around the FOMC’s near-term path under Kevin Warsh.
A consistent weak bias remains present in Bitcoin price action over the last few sessions. Although the price attempted to recover above 60k over the weekend, BTC is currently down close to -2.6% over the past three trading sessions, continuing to reflect relevant short-term weakness.
Over the last two trading sessions, one of the factors gaining short-term relevance has been the renewed strength of the Canadian dollar. This has been reflected in recent USD/CAD price action, with the pair down around -0.18% over the past two sessions.
Semiconductor stocks have suffered one of their sharpest sell-offs in recent years, with investors questioning whether AI enthusiasm has pushed valuations too far, too fast.
