Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Confidence Returns as the Index Challenges Record Highs

The trading week is getting underway with renewed bullish momentum across Nasdaq. This is reflected in today's session, where the index has gained more than 2.5%, highlighting a buying bias that has not been observed with this level of strength in several weeks. For now, demand has been supported by a gradual improvement in sentiment indicators, driven by a partial easing of tensions in the Middle East and lower pressure from the bond market. This has been reinforced by the strong performance of several key index components, factors that have started to reduce some of the concerns surrounding a potentially more aggressive Federal Reserve. If this backdrop remains in place, buying pressure could continue to play a relevant role in Nasdaq price action over the coming sessions.

Factors Supporting Short-Term Confidence

The week has started with several developments that have helped improve market sentiment. The first relates to the recent decline in oil prices. WTI crude has moved back toward the $90 per barrel area, supported by improving diplomatic expectations surrounding the potential reopening of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Comments from U.S. ambassador Mike Waltz, indicating that communication channels remain open, combined with the partial reopening of transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, have helped ease some of the geopolitical and inflation concerns that dominated recent weeks.

The second factor is the moderation seen in the U.S. bond market. Following last week's Federal Reserve decision, 10-year Treasury yields have started to ease slightly below the 5.00% level, reducing some of the relative appeal of fixed-income markets compared with higher-risk assets such as equity indices.

Source: TradingEconomics

Most importantly, these developments have coincided with a gradual improvement in overall market sentiment. This can be observed through the Fear & Greed Index, which has recovered toward the 34-point area. Although it remains within "Fear" territory, it has moved away from the levels seen last week, when it was close to falling back into the "Extreme Fear" zone. While this does not yet reflect broad optimism, it does suggest that sentiment toward risk assets such as the Nasdaq has improved thanks to lower geopolitical pressure and a temporary moderation in some monetary-policy concerns.

Source: CNN

Taking all of this into account, confidence appears to be gradually returning to risk markets, helping support more consistent demand for Nasdaq and its underlying stocks. However, it is also worth highlighting the performance of some heavyweight components. Meta has gained more than 11% during the session after Wells Fargo raised its price target on the stock. Meanwhile, AMD has advanced more than 9% on positive expectations surrounding semiconductor trade ahead of this week's meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. These moves have contributed to stronger sentiment around Nasdaq due to the significant weight both companies carry within the index. In addition, most of the Nasdaq's ten largest components are posting gains today, with the exception of SpaceX, suggesting that the current recovery is not being driven solely by isolated stocks but also by a broader improvement in market sentiment.

Source: slickcharts

As a result, a combination of macroeconomic and company-specific factors appears to be supporting a recovery in confidence around Nasdaq at the start of the week. If this environment continues, buying pressure could remain relevant over the coming sessions. However, uncertainty surrounding how aggressive the Federal Reserve could become over the next few months remains one of the key risks to the sustainability of this short-term recovery.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The trading range remains under pressure: Over recent months, Nasdaq price action has continued to develop within a broad trading range that remains the dominant chart structure. However, the index is once again testing the upper boundary of this range and, if a sustained breakout occurs, it could open the door to a more aggressive bullish structure in the short term.
   
• MACD: The MACD histogram continues to develop above the 0 neutral line, indicating that short-term moving-average momentum continues to favor a constructive outlook for the coming sessions.
   
• RSI: The RSI reflects a similar picture, remaining above the 50 neutral level and signaling consistent buying momentum. However, the indicator is also approaching the 70 overbought threshold, a situation that could suggest stretched short-term demand and leave room for corrective pullbacks.
   

Key Levels:

• 30,700 points – Key resistance: This level represents the most important upside barrier on the chart and coincides with the highs recorded during 2026. Price action that manages to break above this area could challenge the current sideways structure and open the door to a more dominant bullish bias, favoring the development of a more established uptrend.
   

• 29,800 points – Near-term barrier: An important retracement level that remains the closest reference to monitor in the event of short-term corrective moves.
   
• 29,200 points – Key support: A significant support area that coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. A move back toward this level could restore a lack of directional conviction and favor an extension of the current trading range over the coming weeks.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25