Weekly update

AUD/USD grinds higher into Australian jobs data as RBA-Fed expectations remain finely balanced and the US dollar holds support.

Bond yields pushed higher again on Friday as the consolidation near the upper end of the recent range continued, mirroring the price action of oil prices, posing threat to the gold recovery attempt.

Gold managed to bounce a bit on Friday, although it was too little to prevent a weekly decline. On the week, the metal fell 2.5%, making its second consecutive weekly decline. Though gold again managed to hold its own above the key $4,000 level on a daily and weekly closing basis, the metal was now flat on the month.

The EUR/USD ended the week on the back foot, surrendering its earlier poise during Friday’s session. From mid-week until that point, the pair had displayed a rather unexpected degree of composure, even as tensions in the Middle East flared up again. A sharp rebound in crude oil swiftly changed the market narrative by mid-week, herding investors back into cautious, defensive trades. By the final stages, however, the mood had darkened.

As markets move into the final stretch of June, one of the main factors still shaping the major cryptocurrency market is the significant weakness that has remained in place for several weeks. The latest week was no exception, as most of the crypto market posted relevant losses and new lows, including Bitcoin, which fell below the 60k area and reached a new low for the year.

With the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook under the new chairman supporting the dollar, this has been among the reasons why gold has fallen in recent weeks. That’s not to mention the impact of fading haven demand amid the de-escalation of the Middle East tensions, and the loss of prior speculative bullish moment.

With only a few days left in June, one of the factors still weighing on the cryptocurrency market is the steady outflow of capital and the decline in demand activity. This dynamic has started to put more pressure on the crypto market, as investors continue to show a high perception of risk and appear to be moving toward more stable assets, such as the US dollar, in the short term.

The EUR/USD found some mild support on profit-taking on Friday when US investors were out. I can’t see the pair falling too much lower from here, and think it is best positioned for a recovery among the majors once the dollar-buying runs its course.

Gold closed lower for the second consecutive week on Friday, although it finished the week well off its lows after rebounding on Thursday and holding on to some of those gains during Friday’s consolidation.

At the time of writing, the US dollar looked set to finish the week on a strong footing after a much stronger-than-expected labour market report prompted investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, sending yields higher.

The EUR/USD is likely to open the week with a gap higher after US president Donald Trump announced over the weekend that a peace agreement between the United States and Iran has been “largely negotiated”.