Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains, Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000

Article Outline

• Key Events: Chinese PMIs, trade wars, SEC Crypto Regulations, FOMC
• Technical Analysis: Crude Oil and Bitcoin 3-Day and Weekly Time Frames

Chinese PMI’s Disappoint, Oil Rebounds From 72 Support

Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell short of expectations on Monday, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to a five-month low of 49.1, signaling contraction. Following a brief rebound from the $80 level, driven by factors such as Trump’s oil price cut claims and the dissipation of short-term bullish drivers, crude oil wiped out nearly all of its 2025 gains, sliding back to the $72 price zone.

Oil is currently trading above a volatile and uncertain range, with potential to gravitate toward its key four-year support zone between $64 and $68 if the $72 level is breached. This range will determine oil’s trajectory: either a steep decline toward $55 or a neutral hold.

Crypto Regulations

The U.S. is implementing a new crypto regulatory framework designed to foster financial innovation while reducing speculative risks. The SEC recently announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force with key objectives, including:

• Developing clear registration pathways for crypto assets
• Crafting sensible disclosure frameworks
• Clarifying when crypto tokens qualify as securities
• Ensuring judicious deployment of enforcement resources (Source: Forbes)

This evolving regulatory framework aims to create a sustainable environment for crypto investments, offering long-term stability and reducing market speculation. As these regulations take hold, sharp spikes in crypto volatility may gradually return to more stable levels.

Key market-moving events this week include escalating US-China trade war tensions, fueled by intensifying AI rivalry; Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with markets closely watching for signals amid inflation risks under the Trump presidency; and a series of mega-cap earnings reports that could steer broader market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Crude Oil Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

After declining from the $80 highs, crude oil rebounded from the $72 zone, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the trading range observed between October and December 2024.

Support Levels: A break below $72 could trigger further declines toward $70, $68, and the critical $64 support zone. If the $64 support fails, oil could plunge further, targeting $55 and $49.

Resistance Levels: Although bearish momentum dominates, a break back above $78 and $80 could signal recovery, extending gains to $84 and $89.

Bitcoin Outlook: Weekly Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin’s breakout to the $100,000 mark has brought it into an expanding consolidation pattern, aligning with a long-term trendline connecting the highs of 2021. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:

1. Bullish Continuation: A firm close above $112,000 could confirm the continuation of Bitcoin's rally. Key levels include $128,000 and $147,000, aligning with the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions derived from the trend between the September 2023 low ($25,000), the March 2024 high ($73,800), and the August 2024 low ($49,500).

2. Bearish Reversal: Failure to break above $112,000 could result in a potential double-top reversal. A break below $84,000 would signal further downside risk, with targets at $74,000, $63,000, and $51,000.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

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