
S&P 500 breakout puts 8,000 in sight
Fresh record highs, supportive seasonality and earnings season just ahead leave the S&P 500 bulls with plenty in their favour, even as narrowing breadth argues against getting too carried away.
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Fresh record highs, supportive seasonality and earnings season just ahead leave the S&P 500 bulls with plenty in their favour, even as narrowing breadth argues against getting too carried away.

Recent trading sessions have done little to restore confidence in the equity market. Over the last four sessions, the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 1.00%, a move that highlights growing short-term weakness and keeps the index moving further away from its record-high territory.

The Fed was quite hawkish yesterday and we saw what kind of a reaction it triggered in the FX and equity markets. Yet despite those initial falls, index futures have already recovered to around their pre-FOMC levels at the time of writing today. The resilience of the stock market continues to surprise.

Recent trading sessions around SPX have failed to show a particularly strong sense of confidence for the equity index. Over the last four trading sessions, average price movements have barely reached 1.00%, a figure that remains below the fluctuations seen weeks ago, when daily moves above 1.5% were relatively common.

As the week draws to a close, the SPX index has so far failed to maintain a confident short-term outlook. In the current session, the index is down more than 1%, reinforcing a more consistent weakening scenario as markets await the release of annual U.S. inflation.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have risen as much as 120 bps from the low just before the FOMC’s first rate cut of this cycle, and now it’s starting to negatively impact equities.