Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD 17% Plunge Threatens Multi-Year Uptrend

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold has declined in seven of the past nine weeks, with weekly RSI falling to its lowest level since September 2022.
• The breakdown of the October opening range extended for a third consecutive week, with XAU/USD registering a fresh yearly low on Friday.
• While the March downtrend remains intact, price is now approaching a major support confluence, raising the prospect of a potential exhaustion low heading into November.
• A weekly close below this critical threshold would threaten the broader multi-year uptrend and expose a significantly deeper correction.
• Next week's U.S. midterm elections, ISM data, and Nonfarm Payrolls headline event risk as markets reassess the Fed's rate outlook.
• Resistance 4017, 4166 (key), 4319- Support 3800/40 (key), 3569, 3432/39

Gold enters November under mounting selling pressure, with XAU/USD approaching one of the most consequential technical inflection zones of the year. The convergence of multi-year uptrend and Fibonacci support raises the prospect of an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead, but a decisive breakdown would threaten a much steeper correction into year-end. Attention now shifts to next week's U.S. midterm elections, key employment data and renewed Fed commentary, with Treasury yields and the dollar likely to remain central drivers of price action. The reaction off this critical support zone could prove decisive in determining whether the broader uptrend survives or gives way to another major leg lower. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was approaching confluent support into the start of the month and, “From a trading standpoint, the risk remains tilted to the downside while below 4319 with a break / weekly close below 4104 needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.” Gold broke below support three-weeks later with the subsequent decline plunging more than 8.3% off the October high. Prices have now fallen for seven of the past nine weeks with the decline extending nearly 17.5% from the August high to a fresh yearly low. Weekly RSI has now reached the lowest levels since September of 2022 with the momentum profile favoring the bears heading into the November open.  

The immediate focus heading into the monthly open is on a reaction into key support at the 1.618% extension of the August decline near 3800/40. Note that this level converges on the median line of the March downtrend and the lower parallel of the broader 2024 uptrend next week. A break / weekly close below this threshold would invalidate the multi-year advance and would threaten a much larger steeper decline into the close of the year.

Initial resistance is now eyed at the July low close at 4017 and is backed by the October high-week close (HWC) at 4166. Strength surpassing this level would suggest a more significant low is in place with a breach / weekly close above the 2026 yearly open at 4319 ultimately needed to invalidate the March downtrend.

A break / weekly close below 3800 would be needed to mark resumption of the March downtrend and would threaten another bout of accelerated losses. Subsequent support objectives rest at the 100% extension of the decline off the January record high at 3569 followed by 3432/39- a region defined by the 2025 June high close, the 2025 May & July swing highs. Both levels represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: A break of the October opening range has now extended for a third consecutive week with the bears within striking distance of major support at the lower bounds of a multi-year uptrend. Risk rises for a potential exhaustion low heading into November. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a test of 3800/40. Rallies would need to be limited to 4166 IF price is heading for a break lower with a weekly close below this support zone needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Event risk for gold builds next week around the U.S. midterm elections, ISM manufacturing data and a series of labor-market releases, culminating in Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. With markets still focused on the Fed’s inflation outlook and the prospect of another December hike, the dollar and Treasury yields will remain the key transmission channels. A softer data sequence would ease that policy pressure, while heightened political or geopolitical uncertainty could reinforce demand for the metal as a haven. Fed officials also return to the public stage after the blackout period, adding another layer to the policy debate and leaving gold vulnerable to renewed volatility around the data. Stay nimble into the monthly open and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex