News and Analysis

The US Dollar is testing major support despite hotter inflation as Fed pushback cools yields and forces markets to reassess the path for tightening.

Following the CPI-related drop yesterday, Nasdaq 100 futures have fallen further following a weak handover from Asian markets overnight. US stocks came under intense pressure after a hotter-than-expected inflation report revived bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes and sent Treasury yields and the dollar higher. While both the dollar and yields subsequently dropped back to pre-CPI levels and more in the case of yields, the Nasdaq has failed to respond positively as concerns over AI trade remained.

GBP/USD rises after UK GDP boost and amid a weaker USD. Gold rises as Treasury yields and USD ease lower. PPI and retail sales data are up next.

We've seen three substantial Nasdaq 100 selloffs this year, only for buyers to return. But the Treasury market's reaction to the latest decline is very different, raising questions about whether this is another temporary scare or something more substantial.

Australian jobs fell by 39.3k as unemployment held at 4.7%, sending the Aussie lower and prompting traders to scale back expectations for further RBA hikes.

Bond bears had every excuse to wreak havoc after September's inflation surprise. Instead, buyers returned aggressively, leaving Treasury futures threatening to bottom and the dollar struggling to extend its rally.

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY show signs of potential swing highs as bearish reversal candles emerge ahead of Australia's employment report.

Recent sessions have been particularly challenging for silver prices in the short term. Selling pressure has intensified considerably, resulting in three consecutive losing sessions and pushing the metal to a decline of nearly 8.5% over this period.

Gold prices came into the day with a bullish backdrop but that has dimmed after the CPI release earlier on the day.

USD/CAD is holding near fresh yearly highs, but bearish divergence and a well-defined October range raise the stakes at major resistance.

The trading week continues to unfold and weakness around the euro has once again become increasingly evident in the short term. This can be seen in the recent performance of EUR/USD, which has declined roughly 0.3% over the last three trading sessions, highlighting renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

Coming into the week there was an early case of divergence as AI and tech had started to show lag behind the S&P. That shift is growing more noticeable following a higher-than-expected CPI print.