News and Analysis

Prediction markets are pricing in nearly 75% odds of a Democratic sweep in this week’s US midterm elections, a development that would result in a split from the single party Republican rule of the past two years - what will it mean for markets?

Gold has started the first week of the new month trying to recover some ground after another bruising week. Oil prices have taken a sharp drop and that has allowed risk assets to bounce back, which has clearly helped the precious metal too. However, with sentiment remaining bearish towards the metals, and with $4000 level having been taken out last week, the path of least resistance is to the downside for gold.

U.S. stock indices are moving higher on Monday as tech and AI-related stocks steady following a shocking October. The mood remains cautious following the AI wobble, with more tech earnings due this week, U.S. midterm elections and a full U.S. economic data calendar.

The GBP/USD heads into a crowded week of event risk, with the midterm elections, a Bank of England rate decision and Friday's non-farm payrolls report all capable of moving markets sharply. The greenback remains fundamentally well supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve, but much of that is already priced in, while the renewed sell-off in technology stocks has exposed its vulnerability.

EUR/USD rises as lower oil prices offset weak German retail sales. Gold rebounds from 2026 lows after the worst October in 18 years.

The Nasdaq 100 has printed a bearish monthly key reversal after a brutal October, with weak market breadth and heavy losses among AI beneficiaries raising the risk of further downside.

Yen bulls piled into futures ahead of the BOJ's hawkish hold, while euro shorts reached an 11-year extreme despite EUR/USD holding above support.

Crude oil weekly outlook: U.S.–Iran negotiations may be moving closer to a breakthrough as the U.S. midterm elections approach on Tuesday, bringing key resistance levels on crude oil charts into focus.

AUD/USD faces a pivotal week as an expected RBA hike, US midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls test the Australian dollar's recovery.

As October enters its final stretch, one of the most relevant developments in the cryptocurrency market is that, after several weeks of neutrality, a more consistent phase of weakness is beginning to take shape. Throughout the week, none of the major cryptocurrencies has managed to sustain meaningful gains and, instead, selling pressure has gradually regained control across the sector.

EUR/USD has been mired in a steep sell-off as worries have built around French yields, but continued support around the 1.1100 level give hope for a bounce that could possibly turn into something more.