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Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 12

October 12 – Geopolitics are the feature to start the week, with major weekend escalations in the Middle East and a surprising U.S. / Russian agreement throwing a wrench into Black Sea diplomacy. Stock futures are pointing to a quietly mixed open as traders attempt to digest the weekend developments, as well as prepare for this week’s September inflation data, and look ahead to the upcoming third quarter earnings season. The VIX is elevated to start the week but remains near the low-end of 2026’s range, hovering near 15.5 at the time of writing. The dollar continues to march higher, though it does appear to be running into resistance every time it approaches the 102.5 level, currently trading near 102.42 this morning. U.S. bond markets are closed today in observance of Columbus Day, though Treasury futures will be trading normally. Crude oil is rising following the weekend escalations, with nearby WTI up 2.15% at the time of writing to trade near $93.65, while nearby Brent is up 1.9% to trade near $106.70, a nearly four-week high. The ags are largely mixed to start the week, with the market finding its footing following Friday’s surprises in USDA’s October WASDE report.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia Open a Second Front in Oil Supply Risk

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure are adding a second source of Middle East oil supply risk, alongside shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. New Russian diesel volumes ease some tightness in refined products but do nothing to calm the Gulf.

Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta
  • Energy

China's Property Slump Caps Base Metals Demand Despite Policy Support

China's stimulus is steadying base metals demand without restarting it, as property sales and fixed asset investment keep falling. Natalie Scott-Gray explains why policy support sets a floor for metals, and why weaker Chinese manufacturing remains a downside risk for copper.

Natalie Scott-Gray
Natalie Scott-Gray
  • Base Metals

Treasury Yields Are Giving Investors a Safer Exit From the AI Trade

Long-dated Treasury yields are giving investors a lower-risk alternative to stretched AI stocks just as Nvidia stalls at record highs. Higher yields reflect growth and inflation, yet they also squeeze debt-dependent AI hyperscalers and pull capital away from crowded tech.

James Stanley
James Stanley
  • Fixed Income

Canceled IPOs Put Investment Banking Revenue at the Heart of Earnings

Big U.S. banks report third-quarter results with their sector index well below recent highs and higher Treasury yields already pushing IPOs off the calendar. Investment banking revenue is where the yield story meets bank profits, against earnings expectations that remain high.

Fiona Cincotta
Fiona Cincotta
  • Equities

Gold Breakout Gains Momentum as RSI and MACD Turn Bullish Together

Gold's break from its downtrend now has momentum indicators behind it, with RSI and MACD both turning bullish. The bigger test is whether the U.S. dollar and Treasury note futures keep turning in gold's favor.

David Scutt
David Scutt
  • Precious Metals

Dow Jones Nears March Oversold Levels as Yields Weigh on Cyclicals

Rising Treasury yields are hitting the Dow Jones and cyclical sectors much harder than AI and tech stocks. With the Dow Jones nearing oversold levels and the Nasdaq still overbought, U.S. indices now show a split that points to a possible sector rotation.

Razan Hilal
Razan Hilal
  • Fixed Income

U.S. Corn Acres Shrink as Fertilizer Costs Push Growers to Soybeans

Low corn prices and rising fertilizer costs pushed U.S. growers toward soybeans, shrinking the U.S. corn crop after a record season. The smaller crop arrives as other exporters face constraints, leaving global buyers more dependent on U.S. corn.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

FX Weekly Overview (Brazil Issue)

Dollar expected to reflect optimism with the electoral race in Brazil and US inflation data

Leonel Mattos
Leonel Mattos
  • Currencies

Daily Coffee Report 10/9/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

El Niño and the Market Habit of Pricing Fear Before the Facts Arrive

El Niño crop fears tend to peak long before harvest data arrives, and markets often price the worst case first. Australia's wheat crop and Brazil's record estimates show how that fear can give way to facts.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 9

October 9 – Stocks are looking to end the week on a positive note, with the major indexes all in the green at midday, led by the Dow Jones. The VIX has cooled to a two-week low below 14.9 at the time of writing. The dollar remains higher, hovering around 102.3 at midday, still near its 18-month high. Treasury yields are continuing their push higher, with 2-year yields at 4.802%, 10-year yields at 5.253%, and 30-year yields at 5.61%. Crude oil is having a rather quiet session, with nearby WTI clinging to small gains as it sits 0.25% higher to trade near $91.40, and nearby Brent effectively unchanged at writing near $104.10. The ags are sharply lower following the USDA’s October WASDE, with results shown below.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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October 14

STA Market Structure Conference

Third party events|North America|Language: English

October 14 - October 16, 2026

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We're proud to be a Platinum Sponsor of the 93rd Annual STA Market Structure Conference in Washington, D.C., bringing together industry leaders to discuss the future of market structure and trading.

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