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By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
In this webinar series, Arlan Suderman presents his USDA Report analysis and the potential commodity market movers he’s got his eye on each month in 2024. Click the link below to access recordings of the webinars to get his market insights.
You can also register for the entire year of Arlan Suderman’s Market Outlook webinars here. In addition to his monthly analysis, you’ll also get access to Arlan’s quarterly outlooks. You will receive calendar invites and reminders for each webinar throughout the year, ensuring you get all his market insights.
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Brazil's soybean exports are being redirected rather than reduced as China leans harder on U.S. beans. New buyers across Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are picking up the cargoes that once headed to China.
July 31 – Stocks are looking to add to yesterday’s rebound, with futures pointing to positive opens across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is looking to lead the way higher, with Amazon’s impressive earnings report after yesterday’s close possibly calming some of the nerves regarding the broader tech sector after the recent selloff. While topline revenue saw a solid beat, the biggest standout was the impressive performance of AWS, with sales seeing its fastest growth in four-and-a-half years, suggesting the company’s heavy AI infrastructure spending is translating into serious demand. As the AI buildout accelerates, the market is likely to draw an increasingly sharp distinction between companies converting these massive investments into earnings growth and those simply accumulating costs. The VIX is reflecting a cooling of fears on Wall Street as well, looking at a quiet start to the day as it sits near the 17.3 mark. The dollar is rebounding after tanking to a six-week low yesterday, trading at 100.34 this morning. Treasuries remain a concern for the market, though they are looking to reverse some of the sharp inversions seen this week, as 30-year yields remain near their 19-year highs, trading at 5.226% at the time of writing, while 10-year yields are flirting with an 18-month high as they trade at 4.70%, and 2-year yields have pushed to trade just below 4.29%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the day, with nearby WTI up 1.6% to trade near $85.30 and nearby Brent up 1.7% to trade near $88.40. The ags are looking at a mixed open, with the wheat complex taking back some of yesterday's gains despite fresh escalations between Russia and Ukraine.
July 30 – The Fed held steady as expected, but in a divided decision as three of the twelve FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25-basis point hike. That end result, coupled with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s subsequent press conference, struck a notably hawkish tone—no surprise given the rise in real rates and the expected path of policy since the Fed’s last meeting, developments Warsh also highlighted. Part of this hawkish tilt was Warsh unequivocally rejecting any tolerance for above-target inflation, reiterating “there is no soft implicit target—not on this Committee’s watch. There is only a target, and it is 2%.” He also acknowledged that five-plus years of above-target inflation had damaged public confidence in the Fed’s commitment to that 2% target, while arguing that credibility now depends on delivering actual price stability rather than relying on guidance. The new Fed Chair has obviously inherited a very difficult situation, growing more complex seemingly by the day, though this morning’s employment and inflation data both look to provide something of a sigh of relief, however brief. Traders will likely take some time to adjust to the new era at the Fed, with an explicit emphasis on providing less forward guidance, but as we’ve seen time and again, the market will find a way to adapt.
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