The Outlook

Originally published as part of The Outlook Newsletter

Vol. 1, Issue 4C

 

 arlan_suderman_2

Arian Suderman

Chief Commodities
Economist

 

"U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated [on Aug. 25] that it will likely require an economic slowdown to bring inflation down to the 2% mandate, considering the scope of the broader services sector in the inflation equation. The service sector is heavily dependent on labor, which continues to see rising wages. Powell emphasized that "two percent is and will remain our inflation target," which is the key line of his speech in my opinion.

From Perspective: Midday Commentary for August 25

 

 Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard

Director - Global
Macro Strategy

 

That was fast. In a couple of months, we went from “hard landing” to “soft landing”, and eventually “no landing”. The GDPNow estimate of 3.9% for Q3 validates my favorite neologism: a trampoline landing.

From The Trampoline Landing and Why I am Bearish - August 2023

 

 Josh Cannington

Josh Cannington

Vice President -
Interest Rate Derivatives

 

“Understandably, Mr. Powell maintained the cautious stance and did not close the door on the possibility of further rate hikes should it prove necessary. Possibly the key is in his words: ‘We see the current stance on policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring and inflation.’ This does not suggest that they won’t hike in September, so the Fed funds may have overshot. Again.”

From USD Rates Commentary April 13

 

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